Extreme Weather Events Interact With Local Contexts to Alter the Frequency of Firearm Violence and Child Maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan
Abstract Climate change is creating more frequent extreme weather events, but impacts on violence are not well understood. We explored associations of extreme weather with firearm violence and child maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan. To understand contextual influences, we estimated models usin...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2025-06-01
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| Series: | GeoHealth |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001406 |
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| author | Rebeccah Sokol Cynthia Gerlein‐Safdi Michelle Degli Esposti Mildred Wallace |
| author_facet | Rebeccah Sokol Cynthia Gerlein‐Safdi Michelle Degli Esposti Mildred Wallace |
| author_sort | Rebeccah Sokol |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is creating more frequent extreme weather events, but impacts on violence are not well understood. We explored associations of extreme weather with firearm violence and child maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan. To understand contextual influences, we estimated models using data from before (2018–2019), during (March 2020–March 2021), and after (2022–2023) the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic. In both 2018–2019 and 2022–2023, firearm violence was lower in the first couple days after extreme weather compared to no prior extreme weather (relative risks [RR]: 0.44–0.54; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.21–0.37, 0.79–0.90), with the influence waning over the following week. We did not observe any reduction, however, during the first year of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Associations differed for child maltreatment. In 2018–2019, we observed no change in maltreatment in the days following extreme weather. Yet, during the first year of the COVID‐19 pandemic, child maltreatment was higher over the 10 days following extreme weather (RR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.58). In 2022–2023, child maltreatment was lower following extreme weather events, but this finding is likely an artifact of reduced reporting after extreme weather during this period. In Wayne County, extreme weather immediately reduced firearm violence, with effects waning as people likely resumed regular activities. The first year of the COVID‐19 pandemic suspended this influence, as extreme weather may not have changed daily activities beyond pandemic‐related disruptions. For child maltreatment, however, extreme weather created accumulating risk over several days when it disrupted an already stressed environment. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bc2a7e1fb00b462d893dbe3e70e38e61 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2471-1403 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | GeoHealth |
| spelling | doaj-art-bc2a7e1fb00b462d893dbe3e70e38e612025-08-20T03:30:08ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)GeoHealth2471-14032025-06-0196n/an/a10.1029/2025GH001406Extreme Weather Events Interact With Local Contexts to Alter the Frequency of Firearm Violence and Child Maltreatment in Wayne County, MichiganRebeccah Sokol0Cynthia Gerlein‐Safdi1Michelle Degli Esposti2Mildred Wallace3School of Social Work University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California‐Berkeley Berkeley CA USAInstitute for Firearm Injury Prevention University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USAInstitute for Firearm Injury Prevention University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USAAbstract Climate change is creating more frequent extreme weather events, but impacts on violence are not well understood. We explored associations of extreme weather with firearm violence and child maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan. To understand contextual influences, we estimated models using data from before (2018–2019), during (March 2020–March 2021), and after (2022–2023) the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic. In both 2018–2019 and 2022–2023, firearm violence was lower in the first couple days after extreme weather compared to no prior extreme weather (relative risks [RR]: 0.44–0.54; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.21–0.37, 0.79–0.90), with the influence waning over the following week. We did not observe any reduction, however, during the first year of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Associations differed for child maltreatment. In 2018–2019, we observed no change in maltreatment in the days following extreme weather. Yet, during the first year of the COVID‐19 pandemic, child maltreatment was higher over the 10 days following extreme weather (RR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.58). In 2022–2023, child maltreatment was lower following extreme weather events, but this finding is likely an artifact of reduced reporting after extreme weather during this period. In Wayne County, extreme weather immediately reduced firearm violence, with effects waning as people likely resumed regular activities. The first year of the COVID‐19 pandemic suspended this influence, as extreme weather may not have changed daily activities beyond pandemic‐related disruptions. For child maltreatment, however, extreme weather created accumulating risk over several days when it disrupted an already stressed environment.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001406violenceclimate changestorm |
| spellingShingle | Rebeccah Sokol Cynthia Gerlein‐Safdi Michelle Degli Esposti Mildred Wallace Extreme Weather Events Interact With Local Contexts to Alter the Frequency of Firearm Violence and Child Maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan GeoHealth violence climate change storm |
| title | Extreme Weather Events Interact With Local Contexts to Alter the Frequency of Firearm Violence and Child Maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan |
| title_full | Extreme Weather Events Interact With Local Contexts to Alter the Frequency of Firearm Violence and Child Maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan |
| title_fullStr | Extreme Weather Events Interact With Local Contexts to Alter the Frequency of Firearm Violence and Child Maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme Weather Events Interact With Local Contexts to Alter the Frequency of Firearm Violence and Child Maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan |
| title_short | Extreme Weather Events Interact With Local Contexts to Alter the Frequency of Firearm Violence and Child Maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan |
| title_sort | extreme weather events interact with local contexts to alter the frequency of firearm violence and child maltreatment in wayne county michigan |
| topic | violence climate change storm |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001406 |
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