Fractional integration and energy demand: A time series analysis for Latin America
In this paper, we examine energy demand in a group of Latin American regions using a fractional integration approach. Employing annual data from 1965 to 2023 on primary energy consumption in exajoules (EJ) and per capita consumption in gigajoules (GJ), we investigate the persistence and mean-reverti...
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25002202 |
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| author | Luis Rodrigo Asturias Schaub Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana Benjamín Leiva |
| author_facet | Luis Rodrigo Asturias Schaub Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana Benjamín Leiva |
| author_sort | Luis Rodrigo Asturias Schaub |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, we examine energy demand in a group of Latin American regions using a fractional integration approach. Employing annual data from 1965 to 2023 on primary energy consumption in exajoules (EJ) and per capita consumption in gigajoules (GJ), we investigate the persistence and mean-reverting properties of energy demand over time. The application of fractional integration techniques allows us to capture both short- and long-term dependencies, offering a more flexible framework compared to traditional time series models. Our findings indicate that energy demand in Latin America exhibits long-memory characteristics, implying that shocks to consumption may have prolonged effects, with some countries displaying a slow mean-reverting process while others show evidence of permanent shocks. These heterogeneous results suggest that structural factors, such as economic development, energy policies, and technological advancements, play a crucial role in shaping consumption patterns. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of considering long-run dynamics in energy demand forecasting and policymaking, particularly in the context of economic growth and environmental sustainability. The results emphasize the need for adaptive energy strategies that consider the varying degrees of persistence across countries, aiming for a balance between economic development and the transition towards cleaner energy sources. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bc0ed147753245f5adc4a7be18bb7cf0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj-art-bc0ed147753245f5adc4a7be18bb7cf02025-08-20T04:02:23ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2025-09-016110185710.1016/j.esr.2025.101857Fractional integration and energy demand: A time series analysis for Latin AmericaLuis Rodrigo Asturias Schaub0Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana1Benjamín Leiva2Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Observatorio Económico Sostenible, GuatemalaUniversity of Navarra, NCID, DATAI, Pamplona, Spain; Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain; Corresponding author. University of Navarra, NCID, DATAI, Pamplona, Spain.Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Observatorio Económico Sostenible, GuatemalaIn this paper, we examine energy demand in a group of Latin American regions using a fractional integration approach. Employing annual data from 1965 to 2023 on primary energy consumption in exajoules (EJ) and per capita consumption in gigajoules (GJ), we investigate the persistence and mean-reverting properties of energy demand over time. The application of fractional integration techniques allows us to capture both short- and long-term dependencies, offering a more flexible framework compared to traditional time series models. Our findings indicate that energy demand in Latin America exhibits long-memory characteristics, implying that shocks to consumption may have prolonged effects, with some countries displaying a slow mean-reverting process while others show evidence of permanent shocks. These heterogeneous results suggest that structural factors, such as economic development, energy policies, and technological advancements, play a crucial role in shaping consumption patterns. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of considering long-run dynamics in energy demand forecasting and policymaking, particularly in the context of economic growth and environmental sustainability. The results emphasize the need for adaptive energy strategies that consider the varying degrees of persistence across countries, aiming for a balance between economic development and the transition towards cleaner energy sources.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25002202B22C01C22Q51Q54 |
| spellingShingle | Luis Rodrigo Asturias Schaub Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana Benjamín Leiva Fractional integration and energy demand: A time series analysis for Latin America Energy Strategy Reviews B22 C01 C22 Q51 Q54 |
| title | Fractional integration and energy demand: A time series analysis for Latin America |
| title_full | Fractional integration and energy demand: A time series analysis for Latin America |
| title_fullStr | Fractional integration and energy demand: A time series analysis for Latin America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fractional integration and energy demand: A time series analysis for Latin America |
| title_short | Fractional integration and energy demand: A time series analysis for Latin America |
| title_sort | fractional integration and energy demand a time series analysis for latin america |
| topic | B22 C01 C22 Q51 Q54 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25002202 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT luisrodrigoasturiasschaub fractionalintegrationandenergydemandatimeseriesanalysisforlatinamerica AT luisalberikogilalana fractionalintegrationandenergydemandatimeseriesanalysisforlatinamerica AT benjaminleiva fractionalintegrationandenergydemandatimeseriesanalysisforlatinamerica |