Machine Guided Derivation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Strength

Abstract A machine learning based methodology is developed to determine the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Neural networks capture relationships between various climate variables and AMOC. We then identify which of the v...

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Main Authors: Qi‐Fan Wu, Markus Jochum, James E. Avery, Guido Vettoretti, Roman Nuterman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-02-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113454
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author Qi‐Fan Wu
Markus Jochum
James E. Avery
Guido Vettoretti
Roman Nuterman
author_facet Qi‐Fan Wu
Markus Jochum
James E. Avery
Guido Vettoretti
Roman Nuterman
author_sort Qi‐Fan Wu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract A machine learning based methodology is developed to determine the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Neural networks capture relationships between various climate variables and AMOC. We then identify which of the various are the most important to control the AMOC, and then perform symbolic regression to transform complex interactions into a simple closed‐form approximation. A sensitivity analysis for this equation reveals that surface freshwater flux and potential density at 200 m depth are the main controls of the AMOC.
format Article
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institution OA Journals
issn 0094-8276
1944-8007
language English
publishDate 2025-02-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-bc0c7fc5105643b4a62816953b13fbe52025-08-20T02:06:28ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-02-01523n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113454Machine Guided Derivation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) StrengthQi‐Fan Wu0Markus Jochum1James E. Avery2Guido Vettoretti3Roman Nuterman4Niels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen Copenhagen DenmarkNiels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen Copenhagen DenmarkDepartment of Computer Science University of Copenhagen Copenhagen DenmarkNiels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen Copenhagen DenmarkNiels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen Copenhagen DenmarkAbstract A machine learning based methodology is developed to determine the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Neural networks capture relationships between various climate variables and AMOC. We then identify which of the various are the most important to control the AMOC, and then perform symbolic regression to transform complex interactions into a simple closed‐form approximation. A sensitivity analysis for this equation reveals that surface freshwater flux and potential density at 200 m depth are the main controls of the AMOC.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113454
spellingShingle Qi‐Fan Wu
Markus Jochum
James E. Avery
Guido Vettoretti
Roman Nuterman
Machine Guided Derivation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Strength
Geophysical Research Letters
title Machine Guided Derivation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Strength
title_full Machine Guided Derivation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Strength
title_fullStr Machine Guided Derivation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Strength
title_full_unstemmed Machine Guided Derivation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Strength
title_short Machine Guided Derivation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Strength
title_sort machine guided derivation of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation amoc strength
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113454
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AT jameseavery machineguidedderivationoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationamocstrength
AT guidovettoretti machineguidedderivationoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationamocstrength
AT romannuterman machineguidedderivationoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationamocstrength