Clinical, radiological, and radiomics feature-based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90-day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhage
Abstract Background The risks and prognosis of mild intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients were easily overlooked by clinicians. Our goal was to use machine learning (ML) methods to predict mild ICH patients’ neurological deterioration (ND) and 90-day prognosis. Methods This prospective study recru...
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BMC
2025-05-01
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| Series: | BMC Medical Imaging |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12880-025-01717-x |
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| author | Weixiong Zeng Jiaying Chen Linling Shen Genghong Xia Jiahui Xie Shuqiong Zheng Zilong He Limei Deng Yaya Guo Jingjing Yang Yijun Lv Genggeng Qin Weiguo Chen Jia Yin Qiheng Wu |
| author_facet | Weixiong Zeng Jiaying Chen Linling Shen Genghong Xia Jiahui Xie Shuqiong Zheng Zilong He Limei Deng Yaya Guo Jingjing Yang Yijun Lv Genggeng Qin Weiguo Chen Jia Yin Qiheng Wu |
| author_sort | Weixiong Zeng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The risks and prognosis of mild intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients were easily overlooked by clinicians. Our goal was to use machine learning (ML) methods to predict mild ICH patients’ neurological deterioration (ND) and 90-day prognosis. Methods This prospective study recruited 257 patients with mild ICH for this study. After exclusions, 148 patients were included in the ND study and 144 patients in the 90-day prognosis study. We trained five ML models using filtered data, including clinical, traditional imaging, and radiomics indicators based on non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT). Additionally, we incorporated the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) method to display key features and visualize the decision-making process of the model for each individual. Results A total of 21 (14.2%) mild ICH patients developed ND, and 35 (24.3%) mild ICH patients had a 90-day poor prognosis. In the validation set, the support vector machine (SVM) models achieved an AUC of 0.846 (95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.627-1.000) and an F1-score of 0.667 for predicting ND, and an AUC of 0.970 (95% CI, 0.928-1.000), and an F1-score of 0.846 for predicting 90-day prognosis. The SHAP analysis results indicated that several clinical features, the island sign, and the radiomics features of the hematoma were of significant value in predicting ND and 90-day prognosis. Conclusion The ML models, constructed using clinical, traditional imaging, and radiomics indicators, demonstrated good classification performance in predicting ND and 90-day prognosis in patients with mild ICH, and have the potential to serve as an effective tool in clinical practice. Clinical trial number Not applicable. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bb9d526d59ab453ba5845ccc2a7c48d5 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1471-2342 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | BMC Medical Imaging |
| spelling | doaj-art-bb9d526d59ab453ba5845ccc2a7c48d52025-08-20T02:38:32ZengBMCBMC Medical Imaging1471-23422025-05-0125111510.1186/s12880-025-01717-xClinical, radiological, and radiomics feature-based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90-day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhageWeixiong Zeng0Jiaying Chen1Linling Shen2Genghong Xia3Jiahui Xie4Shuqiong Zheng5Zilong He6Limei Deng7Yaya Guo8Jingjing Yang9Yijun Lv10Genggeng Qin11Weiguo Chen12Jia Yin13Qiheng Wu14Department of Neurology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Neurology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Neurology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Neurology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Neurology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Psychiatry, Sleep Medicine Center, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Radiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Radiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Radiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Radiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Radiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Radiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Radiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Neurology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityDepartment of Neurology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical UniversityAbstract Background The risks and prognosis of mild intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients were easily overlooked by clinicians. Our goal was to use machine learning (ML) methods to predict mild ICH patients’ neurological deterioration (ND) and 90-day prognosis. Methods This prospective study recruited 257 patients with mild ICH for this study. After exclusions, 148 patients were included in the ND study and 144 patients in the 90-day prognosis study. We trained five ML models using filtered data, including clinical, traditional imaging, and radiomics indicators based on non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT). Additionally, we incorporated the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) method to display key features and visualize the decision-making process of the model for each individual. Results A total of 21 (14.2%) mild ICH patients developed ND, and 35 (24.3%) mild ICH patients had a 90-day poor prognosis. In the validation set, the support vector machine (SVM) models achieved an AUC of 0.846 (95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.627-1.000) and an F1-score of 0.667 for predicting ND, and an AUC of 0.970 (95% CI, 0.928-1.000), and an F1-score of 0.846 for predicting 90-day prognosis. The SHAP analysis results indicated that several clinical features, the island sign, and the radiomics features of the hematoma were of significant value in predicting ND and 90-day prognosis. Conclusion The ML models, constructed using clinical, traditional imaging, and radiomics indicators, demonstrated good classification performance in predicting ND and 90-day prognosis in patients with mild ICH, and have the potential to serve as an effective tool in clinical practice. Clinical trial number Not applicable.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12880-025-01717-xIntracerebral hemorrhageNeurological deteriorationModified rankin scaleMachine learningRadiomicsComputed tomography |
| spellingShingle | Weixiong Zeng Jiaying Chen Linling Shen Genghong Xia Jiahui Xie Shuqiong Zheng Zilong He Limei Deng Yaya Guo Jingjing Yang Yijun Lv Genggeng Qin Weiguo Chen Jia Yin Qiheng Wu Clinical, radiological, and radiomics feature-based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90-day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhage BMC Medical Imaging Intracerebral hemorrhage Neurological deterioration Modified rankin scale Machine learning Radiomics Computed tomography |
| title | Clinical, radiological, and radiomics feature-based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90-day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhage |
| title_full | Clinical, radiological, and radiomics feature-based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90-day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhage |
| title_fullStr | Clinical, radiological, and radiomics feature-based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90-day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhage |
| title_full_unstemmed | Clinical, radiological, and radiomics feature-based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90-day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhage |
| title_short | Clinical, radiological, and radiomics feature-based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90-day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhage |
| title_sort | clinical radiological and radiomics feature based explainable machine learning models for prediction of neurological deterioration and 90 day outcomes in mild intracerebral hemorrhage |
| topic | Intracerebral hemorrhage Neurological deterioration Modified rankin scale Machine learning Radiomics Computed tomography |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12880-025-01717-x |
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