Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19.
A key parameter in epidemiological modeling which characterizes the spread of an infectious disease is the generation time, or more generally the distribution of infectiousness as a function of time since infection. There is increasing evidence supporting a prolonged viral shedding window for COVID-...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS Computational Biology |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008609&type=printable |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850043492564205568 |
|---|---|
| author | Burcu Tepekule Anthony Hauser Viacheslav N Kachalov Sara Andresen Thomas Scheier Peter W Schreiber Huldrych F Günthard Roger D Kouyos |
| author_facet | Burcu Tepekule Anthony Hauser Viacheslav N Kachalov Sara Andresen Thomas Scheier Peter W Schreiber Huldrych F Günthard Roger D Kouyos |
| author_sort | Burcu Tepekule |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A key parameter in epidemiological modeling which characterizes the spread of an infectious disease is the generation time, or more generally the distribution of infectiousness as a function of time since infection. There is increasing evidence supporting a prolonged viral shedding window for COVID-19, but the transmissibility in this phase is unclear. Based on this, we develop a generalized Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Resistant (SEIR) model including an additional compartment of chronically infected individuals who can stay infectious for a longer duration than the reported generation time, but with infectivity reduced to varying degrees. Using the incidence and fatality data from different countries, we first show that such an assumption also yields a plausible model in explaining the data observed prior to the easing of the lockdown measures (relaxation). We then test the predictive power of this model for different durations and levels of prolonged infectiousness using the incidence data after the introduction of relaxation in Switzerland, and compare it with a model without the chronically infected population to represent the models conventionally used. We show that in case of a gradual easing on the lockdown measures, the predictions of the model including the chronically infected population vary considerably from those obtained under a model in which prolonged infectiousness is not taken into account. Although the existence of a chronically infected population still remains largely hypothetical, we believe that our results provide tentative evidence to consider a chronically infected population as an alternative modeling approach to better interpret the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bb8d99f4d80b4b2fb33932662eaad2aa |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Computational Biology |
| spelling | doaj-art-bb8d99f4d80b4b2fb33932662eaad2aa2025-08-20T02:55:13ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Computational Biology1553-734X1553-73582021-01-01171e100860910.1371/journal.pcbi.1008609Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19.Burcu TepekuleAnthony HauserViacheslav N KachalovSara AndresenThomas ScheierPeter W SchreiberHuldrych F GünthardRoger D KouyosA key parameter in epidemiological modeling which characterizes the spread of an infectious disease is the generation time, or more generally the distribution of infectiousness as a function of time since infection. There is increasing evidence supporting a prolonged viral shedding window for COVID-19, but the transmissibility in this phase is unclear. Based on this, we develop a generalized Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Resistant (SEIR) model including an additional compartment of chronically infected individuals who can stay infectious for a longer duration than the reported generation time, but with infectivity reduced to varying degrees. Using the incidence and fatality data from different countries, we first show that such an assumption also yields a plausible model in explaining the data observed prior to the easing of the lockdown measures (relaxation). We then test the predictive power of this model for different durations and levels of prolonged infectiousness using the incidence data after the introduction of relaxation in Switzerland, and compare it with a model without the chronically infected population to represent the models conventionally used. We show that in case of a gradual easing on the lockdown measures, the predictions of the model including the chronically infected population vary considerably from those obtained under a model in which prolonged infectiousness is not taken into account. Although the existence of a chronically infected population still remains largely hypothetical, we believe that our results provide tentative evidence to consider a chronically infected population as an alternative modeling approach to better interpret the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008609&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Burcu Tepekule Anthony Hauser Viacheslav N Kachalov Sara Andresen Thomas Scheier Peter W Schreiber Huldrych F Günthard Roger D Kouyos Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19. PLoS Computational Biology |
| title | Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19. |
| title_full | Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19. |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19. |
| title_short | Assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on COVID-19. |
| title_sort | assessing the potential impact of transmission during prolonged viral shedding on the effect of lockdown relaxation on covid 19 |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008609&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT burcutepekule assessingthepotentialimpactoftransmissionduringprolongedviralsheddingontheeffectoflockdownrelaxationoncovid19 AT anthonyhauser assessingthepotentialimpactoftransmissionduringprolongedviralsheddingontheeffectoflockdownrelaxationoncovid19 AT viacheslavnkachalov assessingthepotentialimpactoftransmissionduringprolongedviralsheddingontheeffectoflockdownrelaxationoncovid19 AT saraandresen assessingthepotentialimpactoftransmissionduringprolongedviralsheddingontheeffectoflockdownrelaxationoncovid19 AT thomasscheier assessingthepotentialimpactoftransmissionduringprolongedviralsheddingontheeffectoflockdownrelaxationoncovid19 AT peterwschreiber assessingthepotentialimpactoftransmissionduringprolongedviralsheddingontheeffectoflockdownrelaxationoncovid19 AT huldrychfgunthard assessingthepotentialimpactoftransmissionduringprolongedviralsheddingontheeffectoflockdownrelaxationoncovid19 AT rogerdkouyos assessingthepotentialimpactoftransmissionduringprolongedviralsheddingontheeffectoflockdownrelaxationoncovid19 |