Vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the Northern Hemisphere
Greening is asynchronous with ecosystem resilience in the context of vegetation restoration, thus highlighting the uncertainty in predicting the future sustainability of ecosystems. However, global evidence, to validate this inconsistency, remains limited. Here, we integrated Global Inventory Monito...
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006922 |
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| author | Jingjing Zhang Xingming Hao Yongchang Liu Xuewei Li Qixiang Liang Fan Sun Mengtao Ci Yupeng Li |
| author_facet | Jingjing Zhang Xingming Hao Yongchang Liu Xuewei Li Qixiang Liang Fan Sun Mengtao Ci Yupeng Li |
| author_sort | Jingjing Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Greening is asynchronous with ecosystem resilience in the context of vegetation restoration, thus highlighting the uncertainty in predicting the future sustainability of ecosystems. However, global evidence, to validate this inconsistency, remains limited. Here, we integrated Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies (GIMMS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and global Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (GOSIF) multisource vegetation indices with a random forest model to demonstrate how resilience in Eurasia quantified using critical slowing down indicators has changed during 1984–2020. Resilience estimates derived from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), kernel NDVI (kNDVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Gross Primary Production (GPP), and GOSIF exhibited similar spatial patterns and trends. Specifically, resilience was lower in water-limited regions and increased with higher aridity index values; it peaked in humid regions (AI > 0.65), with average values (quantified by λAC1) ranging from −2.20 to −2.00. While vegetation cover showed a general increasing trend, resilience simultaneously declined, particularly in semi-humid areas. Significant shifts in resilience trends occurred around 2005. Warming and variability in water conditions were identified as the main reasons for the decline in resilience in humid and arid regions, respectively. After the transition point, mean temperature contributed 28.8 %, 41.7 %, and 21.6 % to resilience in the arid, semi-arid, and humid zones, respectively. These findings provide valuable insights for comprehending and assessing the ecological impacts of global and regional climate change mitigation efforts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bb7dc7bbefeb437fbd7ba48520d67782 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-bb7dc7bbefeb437fbd7ba48520d677822025-08-20T03:29:09ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-08-0117711376210.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113762Vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the Northern HemisphereJingjing Zhang0Xingming Hao1Yongchang Liu2Xuewei Li3Qixiang Liang4Fan Sun5Mengtao Ci6Yupeng Li7State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem, Akesu 843017 Xinjiang, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem, Akesu 843017 Xinjiang, China; Corresponding author at: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Waite Campus, Adelaide, South Australia, AustraliaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem, Akesu 843017 Xinjiang, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem, Akesu 843017 Xinjiang, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem, Akesu 843017 Xinjiang, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem, Akesu 843017 Xinjiang, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaGreening is asynchronous with ecosystem resilience in the context of vegetation restoration, thus highlighting the uncertainty in predicting the future sustainability of ecosystems. However, global evidence, to validate this inconsistency, remains limited. Here, we integrated Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies (GIMMS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and global Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (GOSIF) multisource vegetation indices with a random forest model to demonstrate how resilience in Eurasia quantified using critical slowing down indicators has changed during 1984–2020. Resilience estimates derived from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), kernel NDVI (kNDVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Gross Primary Production (GPP), and GOSIF exhibited similar spatial patterns and trends. Specifically, resilience was lower in water-limited regions and increased with higher aridity index values; it peaked in humid regions (AI > 0.65), with average values (quantified by λAC1) ranging from −2.20 to −2.00. While vegetation cover showed a general increasing trend, resilience simultaneously declined, particularly in semi-humid areas. Significant shifts in resilience trends occurred around 2005. Warming and variability in water conditions were identified as the main reasons for the decline in resilience in humid and arid regions, respectively. After the transition point, mean temperature contributed 28.8 %, 41.7 %, and 21.6 % to resilience in the arid, semi-arid, and humid zones, respectively. These findings provide valuable insights for comprehending and assessing the ecological impacts of global and regional climate change mitigation efforts.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006922ResilienceVegetation greeningEurasiaCritical slowing down |
| spellingShingle | Jingjing Zhang Xingming Hao Yongchang Liu Xuewei Li Qixiang Liang Fan Sun Mengtao Ci Yupeng Li Vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the Northern Hemisphere Ecological Indicators Resilience Vegetation greening Eurasia Critical slowing down |
| title | Vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_full | Vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_fullStr | Vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_short | Vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_sort | vegetation greening does not significantly enhance ecosystem resilience in the northern hemisphere |
| topic | Resilience Vegetation greening Eurasia Critical slowing down |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25006922 |
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