TRYING TO DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
The paper deals with the development of integral indices to assess the overall state of the economy. A method of calculating three indices is described: leading, synchronous and lagging with the focus on the leading index that detects turning points in the dynamics of the economy. All the three indi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University
2017-10-01
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| Series: | Финансы: теория и практика |
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| Online Access: | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/291 |
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| author | A. A. Frenkel Ya. V. Sergienko N. N. Volkova O. N. Matveeva |
| author_facet | A. A. Frenkel Ya. V. Sergienko N. N. Volkova O. N. Matveeva |
| author_sort | A. A. Frenkel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper deals with the development of integral indices to assess the overall state of the economy. A method of calculating three indices is described: leading, synchronous and lagging with the focus on the leading index that detects turning points in the dynamics of the economy. All the three indices are calculated for the Russian economy as of 1999-2015; the forecast for April 2016 was made with the prediction error of 2.3%. The analysis of the results leads to the conclusion that the value of the lead lag has decreased compared with the previous periods and this is an evidence of the increased rate of changes in the industrial production dynamics. Moreover, the difference between the lead (4 months) and lag (6 months) of the leading and lagging indices, respectively, relative to the rate of change in the industrial production reflects the specifics of the structure of the Russian economy which is dominated by the export-oriented raw materials sector. In the calculation of an aggregate index, the problem of comparing partial indices having different economic meaning and measurement units is solved by significant adjustment of each index. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bb6c55d7cf604777958ef7d09863e4e8 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2587-5671 2587-7089 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2017-10-01 |
| publisher | Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Финансы: теория и практика |
| spelling | doaj-art-bb6c55d7cf604777958ef7d09863e4e82025-08-20T03:00:44ZrusGovernment of the Russian Federation, Financial UniversityФинансы: теория и практика2587-56712587-70892017-10-012059410410.26794/2587-5671-2016-20-5-94-104328TRYING TO DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMYA. A. Frenkel0Ya. V. Sergienko1N. N. Volkova2O. N. Matveeva3Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Academy of SciencesRussian Academy of SciencesRussian Academy of SciencesThe paper deals with the development of integral indices to assess the overall state of the economy. A method of calculating three indices is described: leading, synchronous and lagging with the focus on the leading index that detects turning points in the dynamics of the economy. All the three indices are calculated for the Russian economy as of 1999-2015; the forecast for April 2016 was made with the prediction error of 2.3%. The analysis of the results leads to the conclusion that the value of the lead lag has decreased compared with the previous periods and this is an evidence of the increased rate of changes in the industrial production dynamics. Moreover, the difference between the lead (4 months) and lag (6 months) of the leading and lagging indices, respectively, relative to the rate of change in the industrial production reflects the specifics of the structure of the Russian economy which is dominated by the export-oriented raw materials sector. In the calculation of an aggregate index, the problem of comparing partial indices having different economic meaning and measurement units is solved by significant adjustment of each index.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/291economydynamicsintegral indexstatistical analysismacroeconomic indexmethodologygrowth ratetime seriesleading indexforecastingeconometric modelsweighting factors |
| spellingShingle | A. A. Frenkel Ya. V. Sergienko N. N. Volkova O. N. Matveeva TRYING TO DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY Финансы: теория и практика economy dynamics integral index statistical analysis macroeconomic index methodology growth rate time series leading index forecasting econometric models weighting factors |
| title | TRYING TO DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY |
| title_full | TRYING TO DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY |
| title_fullStr | TRYING TO DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY |
| title_full_unstemmed | TRYING TO DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY |
| title_short | TRYING TO DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY |
| title_sort | trying to determine the development trends of the russian economy |
| topic | economy dynamics integral index statistical analysis macroeconomic index methodology growth rate time series leading index forecasting econometric models weighting factors |
| url | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/291 |
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