MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES
The article shows the necessity to develop, substantiate (verify) and test models of cyclic fluctuations of economy built on the basis of such factors, which could have high sensitivity to changes in external and internal environment of the economic system and possess high predictability of cyclic t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
2017-09-01
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| Series: | Вестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова |
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| Online Access: | https://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/265 |
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| _version_ | 1849404959599099904 |
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| author | Leonid A. Elshin Maxim V. Savushkin |
| author_facet | Leonid A. Elshin Maxim V. Savushkin |
| author_sort | Leonid A. Elshin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article shows the necessity to develop, substantiate (verify) and test models of cyclic fluctuations of economy built on the basis of such factors, which could have high sensitivity to changes in external and internal environment of the economic system and possess high predictability of cyclic trends. The authors prove that a possible way to resolve the problem is to model economic agents’ expectations and identify trends of their economic development. On the basis of quantitative estimation of economic agents’ expectations they designed algorithm for diagnosing cyclic fluctuations of economy, which gives an opportunity to identify rising and declining phases of economic cycles with an advance lag of 1-2 years with the effective trajectory of economic development of national economy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bb5604ecac584d1aafc3b5d823e15d2c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2413-2829 2587-9251 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2017-09-01 |
| publisher | Plekhanov Russian University of Economics |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Вестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова |
| spelling | doaj-art-bb5604ecac584d1aafc3b5d823e15d2c2025-08-20T03:36:48ZrusPlekhanov Russian University of EconomicsВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова2413-28292587-92512017-09-0102343910.21686/2413-2829-2017-2-34-39264MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLESLeonid A. Elshin0Maxim V. Savushkin1Center of Perspective Economic Researches of Academy of Sciences of the Republic of TatarstanUniversity of Management of «TISBI»The article shows the necessity to develop, substantiate (verify) and test models of cyclic fluctuations of economy built on the basis of such factors, which could have high sensitivity to changes in external and internal environment of the economic system and possess high predictability of cyclic trends. The authors prove that a possible way to resolve the problem is to model economic agents’ expectations and identify trends of their economic development. On the basis of quantitative estimation of economic agents’ expectations they designed algorithm for diagnosing cyclic fluctuations of economy, which gives an opportunity to identify rising and declining phases of economic cycles with an advance lag of 1-2 years with the effective trajectory of economic development of national economy.https://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/265economic agents’ expectationsshort-term cycles of economyforecastingphase shiftscross-correlation analysiscycles of leading development |
| spellingShingle | Leonid A. Elshin Maxim V. Savushkin MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES Вестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова economic agents’ expectations short-term cycles of economy forecasting phase shifts cross-correlation analysis cycles of leading development |
| title | MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES |
| title_full | MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES |
| title_fullStr | MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES |
| title_full_unstemmed | MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES |
| title_short | MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES |
| title_sort | modeling economic agents expectations as a tool of forecasting short term economic cycles |
| topic | economic agents’ expectations short-term cycles of economy forecasting phase shifts cross-correlation analysis cycles of leading development |
| url | https://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/265 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leonidaelshin modelingeconomicagentsexpectationsasatoolofforecastingshorttermeconomiccycles AT maximvsavushkin modelingeconomicagentsexpectationsasatoolofforecastingshorttermeconomiccycles |