Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe
Abstract Global and regional climate models (respectively GCMs and RCMs) are delivering conflicting messages about summertime climate change in Europe, revealing notably a weaker warming in RCMs. A dedicated multimodel ensemble of nine GCM‐RCM pairs is analyzed to assess the role of anthropogenic ae...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112474 |
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| author | P. Nabat S. Somot J. Boé L. Corre E. Katragkou S. Li M. Mallet E. vanMeijgaard V. Pavlidis J.‐P. Pietikäinen S. Sørland F. Solmon |
| author_facet | P. Nabat S. Somot J. Boé L. Corre E. Katragkou S. Li M. Mallet E. vanMeijgaard V. Pavlidis J.‐P. Pietikäinen S. Sørland F. Solmon |
| author_sort | P. Nabat |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global and regional climate models (respectively GCMs and RCMs) are delivering conflicting messages about summertime climate change in Europe, revealing notably a weaker warming in RCMs. A dedicated multimodel ensemble of nine GCM‐RCM pairs is analyzed to assess the role of anthropogenic aerosols in these inconsistencies. The expected decrease of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations is found both to modify the future evolution of shortwave radiation and to generate an extra warming. For every tenth in aerosol optical depth drop in Central Europe, shortwave radiation is increased at the surface by 6.3 Wm−2 and decreased at the top of the atmosphere by 5.6 Wm−2, while near‐surface temperature is increased by 0.3°C. The consideration of time‐varying anthropogenic aerosols in RCMs thus contributes to improving GCM/RCM consistency in Europe for these three variables, but not for water cycle. The results obtained underline the necessity to better consider aerosols in upcoming regional climate simulations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bb2a25a981714eceb21c8e08c1b9e9b7 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-bb2a25a981714eceb21c8e08c1b9e9b72025-08-20T03:10:57ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01526n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112474Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in EuropeP. Nabat0S. Somot1J. Boé2L. Corre3E. Katragkou4S. Li5M. Mallet6E. vanMeijgaard7V. Pavlidis8J.‐P. Pietikäinen9S. Sørland10F. Solmon11CNRM Université de Toulouse Météo‐France CNRS Toulouse FranceCNRM Université de Toulouse Météo‐France CNRS Toulouse FranceCECI Université de Toulouse CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse FranceMétéo‐France Toulouse FranceDepartment of Meteorology and Climatology School of Geology Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Thessaloniki GreeceInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zurich SwitzerlandCNRM Université de Toulouse Météo‐France CNRS Toulouse FranceRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsDepartment of Meteorology and Climatology School of Geology Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Thessaloniki GreeceClimate Service Center Germany (GERICS) Helmholtz‐Zentrum Hereon Hamburg GermanyInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zurich SwitzerlandLaboratoire D’Aérologie CNRS Toulouse FranceAbstract Global and regional climate models (respectively GCMs and RCMs) are delivering conflicting messages about summertime climate change in Europe, revealing notably a weaker warming in RCMs. A dedicated multimodel ensemble of nine GCM‐RCM pairs is analyzed to assess the role of anthropogenic aerosols in these inconsistencies. The expected decrease of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations is found both to modify the future evolution of shortwave radiation and to generate an extra warming. For every tenth in aerosol optical depth drop in Central Europe, shortwave radiation is increased at the surface by 6.3 Wm−2 and decreased at the top of the atmosphere by 5.6 Wm−2, while near‐surface temperature is increased by 0.3°C. The consideration of time‐varying anthropogenic aerosols in RCMs thus contributes to improving GCM/RCM consistency in Europe for these three variables, but not for water cycle. The results obtained underline the necessity to better consider aerosols in upcoming regional climate simulations.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112474aerosolsregional climate modelclimate changefuture climate in Europe |
| spellingShingle | P. Nabat S. Somot J. Boé L. Corre E. Katragkou S. Li M. Mallet E. vanMeijgaard V. Pavlidis J.‐P. Pietikäinen S. Sørland F. Solmon Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe Geophysical Research Letters aerosols regional climate model climate change future climate in Europe |
| title | Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe |
| title_full | Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe |
| title_fullStr | Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe |
| title_short | Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe |
| title_sort | multi model assessment of the role of anthropogenic aerosols in summertime climate change in europe |
| topic | aerosols regional climate model climate change future climate in Europe |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112474 |
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