Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya
Abstract Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12884 |
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| author | Augustine Kiptum Emmah Mwangi George Otieno Andrew Njogu Mary Kilavi Zacharia Mwai Dave MacLeod Jeff Neal Laurence Hawker Tom O'Shea Halima Saado Emma Visman Bernard Majani Martin C. Todd |
| author_facet | Augustine Kiptum Emmah Mwangi George Otieno Andrew Njogu Mary Kilavi Zacharia Mwai Dave MacLeod Jeff Neal Laurence Hawker Tom O'Shea Halima Saado Emma Visman Bernard Majani Martin C. Todd |
| author_sort | Augustine Kiptum |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end‐to‐end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub‐seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bb1241ffdf69472e80287c5742c88ee1 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1753-318X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-bb1241ffdf69472e80287c5742c88ee12025-08-20T02:10:27ZengWileyJournal of Flood Risk Management1753-318X2025-03-01181n/an/a10.1111/jfr3.12884Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in KenyaAugustine Kiptum0Emmah Mwangi1George Otieno2Andrew Njogu3Mary Kilavi4Zacharia Mwai5Dave MacLeod6Jeff Neal7Laurence Hawker8Tom O'Shea9Halima Saado10Emma Visman11Bernard Majani12Martin C. Todd13Department of Geography University of Sussex Sussex UKDepartment of Geography University of Sussex Sussex UKWater Resources Authority Nairobi KenyaKenya Meteorological Department Nairobi KenyaKenya Meteorological Department Nairobi KenyaKenya Meteorological Department Nairobi KenyaUniversity of Bristol Bristol UKUniversity of Bristol Bristol UKUniversity of Bristol Bristol UKUniversity of Bristol Bristol UKKenya Red Cross Society Nairobi KenyaKing's College London London UKKing's College London London UKDepartment of Geography University of Sussex Sussex UKAbstract Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end‐to‐end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub‐seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances.https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12884early warningfloodforecast‐based actionforecastingimpact based forecastinginundation |
| spellingShingle | Augustine Kiptum Emmah Mwangi George Otieno Andrew Njogu Mary Kilavi Zacharia Mwai Dave MacLeod Jeff Neal Laurence Hawker Tom O'Shea Halima Saado Emma Visman Bernard Majani Martin C. Todd Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya Journal of Flood Risk Management early warning flood forecast‐based action forecasting impact based forecasting inundation |
| title | Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya |
| title_full | Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya |
| title_fullStr | Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya |
| title_full_unstemmed | Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya |
| title_short | Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya |
| title_sort | advancing operational flood forecasting early warning and risk management with new emerging science gaps opportunities and barriers in kenya |
| topic | early warning flood forecast‐based action forecasting impact based forecasting inundation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12884 |
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