A proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance scheme

Abstract Tsunami parametric solution was introduced commercially in Japan in 2018, making it one of the first of its kind globally. Parametric insurance provides payouts based on a predefined hazard index, yet its application to tsunamis remains limited due to the lack of understanding of their comp...

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Main Authors: Yushi Miki, Constance Ting Chua, Anawat Suppasri, An-Chi Cheng, Tomoya Iwasaki, Yugo Shinozuka, Takafumi Ogawa, Fumihiko Imamura
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:npj Natural Hazards
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00127-x
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author Yushi Miki
Constance Ting Chua
Anawat Suppasri
An-Chi Cheng
Tomoya Iwasaki
Yugo Shinozuka
Takafumi Ogawa
Fumihiko Imamura
author_facet Yushi Miki
Constance Ting Chua
Anawat Suppasri
An-Chi Cheng
Tomoya Iwasaki
Yugo Shinozuka
Takafumi Ogawa
Fumihiko Imamura
author_sort Yushi Miki
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Tsunami parametric solution was introduced commercially in Japan in 2018, making it one of the first of its kind globally. Parametric insurance provides payouts based on a predefined hazard index, yet its application to tsunamis remains limited due to the lack of understanding of their complex nature. A probabilistic tsunami risk assessment (PTRA) is adopted in this study to characterize tsunami risk. We present one of the earliest efforts to quantify basis risk – the mismatch between payout and actual losses, for tsunami events and develop an optimization model that minimizes basis risk. Applying our model to Sendai Port, which is exposed to multiple tsunami-generating earthquake sources, we show that using tsunami inundation depth as the index for payment can significantly reduce basis risk. Furthermore, incorporating multiple indices improves payout accuracy and reduces basis risk, highlighting the potential of this approach in developing more robust tsunami parametric insurance products.
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institution Kabale University
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publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
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series npj Natural Hazards
spelling doaj-art-baeddeca04eb4d72a5b9cbf29f6bd5602025-08-20T03:45:45ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002025-07-012111410.1038/s44304-025-00127-xA proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance schemeYushi Miki0Constance Ting Chua1Anawat Suppasri2An-Chi Cheng3Tomoya Iwasaki4Yugo Shinozuka5Takafumi Ogawa6Fumihiko Imamura7Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku UniversityInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku UniversityInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku UniversityInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku UniversityInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku UniversitySwiss Re International SE, Japan BranchSwiss Re International SE, Japan BranchInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku UniversityAbstract Tsunami parametric solution was introduced commercially in Japan in 2018, making it one of the first of its kind globally. Parametric insurance provides payouts based on a predefined hazard index, yet its application to tsunamis remains limited due to the lack of understanding of their complex nature. A probabilistic tsunami risk assessment (PTRA) is adopted in this study to characterize tsunami risk. We present one of the earliest efforts to quantify basis risk – the mismatch between payout and actual losses, for tsunami events and develop an optimization model that minimizes basis risk. Applying our model to Sendai Port, which is exposed to multiple tsunami-generating earthquake sources, we show that using tsunami inundation depth as the index for payment can significantly reduce basis risk. Furthermore, incorporating multiple indices improves payout accuracy and reduces basis risk, highlighting the potential of this approach in developing more robust tsunami parametric insurance products.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00127-x
spellingShingle Yushi Miki
Constance Ting Chua
Anawat Suppasri
An-Chi Cheng
Tomoya Iwasaki
Yugo Shinozuka
Takafumi Ogawa
Fumihiko Imamura
A proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance scheme
npj Natural Hazards
title A proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance scheme
title_full A proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance scheme
title_fullStr A proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance scheme
title_full_unstemmed A proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance scheme
title_short A proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance scheme
title_sort proposed approach towards minimizing basis risk in tsunami parametric insurance scheme
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00127-x
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