Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks

A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anom...

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Main Authors: Harry R. Millwater, R. Wesley Osborn
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2006-01-01
Series:International Journal of Rotating Machinery
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/IJRM/2006/28487
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author Harry R. Millwater
R. Wesley Osborn
author_facet Harry R. Millwater
R. Wesley Osborn
author_sort Harry R. Millwater
collection DOAJ
description A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel) and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or surface damage) can be considered. The derivation is developed for Monte Carlo sampling such that the existing failure samples are used and the sensitivities are obtained with minimal additional computational time. Variance estimates and confidence bounds of the sensitivity estimates are developed. The methodology is demonstrated and verified using a multizone probabilistic fatigue analysis of a gas turbine compressor disk analysis considering stress scatter, crack growth propagation scatter, and initial crack size as random variables.
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series International Journal of Rotating Machinery
spelling doaj-art-badedf7e795147d7ab3b697a8e77ae822025-08-20T02:19:19ZengWileyInternational Journal of Rotating Machinery1023-621X1542-30342006-01-01200610.1155/IJRM/2006/2848728487Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine DisksHarry R. Millwater0R. Wesley Osborn1Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USADepartment of Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USAA methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel) and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or surface damage) can be considered. The derivation is developed for Monte Carlo sampling such that the existing failure samples are used and the sensitivities are obtained with minimal additional computational time. Variance estimates and confidence bounds of the sensitivity estimates are developed. The methodology is demonstrated and verified using a multizone probabilistic fatigue analysis of a gas turbine compressor disk analysis considering stress scatter, crack growth propagation scatter, and initial crack size as random variables.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/IJRM/2006/28487
spellingShingle Harry R. Millwater
R. Wesley Osborn
Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
International Journal of Rotating Machinery
title Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
title_full Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
title_fullStr Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
title_short Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
title_sort probabilistic sensitivities for fatigue analysis of turbine engine disks
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/IJRM/2006/28487
work_keys_str_mv AT harryrmillwater probabilisticsensitivitiesforfatigueanalysisofturbineenginedisks
AT rwesleyosborn probabilisticsensitivitiesforfatigueanalysisofturbineenginedisks