Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses
<p>Given relatively abundant paleo-proxies, the study of the last interglacial (LIG, <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 129–116 000 years ago, ka) is valuable to understanding the responses and feedback of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in a warmer-than-preindustria...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
|
| Series: | Climate of the Past |
| Online Access: | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/419/2025/cp-21-419-2025.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1825206431534546944 |
|---|---|
| author | Q. Gao Q. Gao Q. Gao E. Capron L. C. Sime R. H. Rhodes R. Sivankutty X. Zhang B. L. Otto-Bliesner M. Werner |
| author_facet | Q. Gao Q. Gao Q. Gao E. Capron L. C. Sime R. H. Rhodes R. Sivankutty X. Zhang B. L. Otto-Bliesner M. Werner |
| author_sort | Q. Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Given relatively abundant paleo-proxies, the study of the last interglacial (LIG, <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 129–116 000 years ago, ka) is valuable to understanding the responses and feedback of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in a warmer-than-preindustrial climate. The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4) coordinated LIG model simulations which focus on 127 ka. Here we evaluate 12 PMIP4 127 ka Tier 1 model simulations against four recent paleoclimate syntheses of LIG sea and air temperatures and sea ice concentrations. The four syntheses include 99 reconstructions, and all syntheses support the presence of a warmer Southern Ocean, with reduced sea ice and a warmer Antarctica at 127 ka compared to the preindustrial. The PMIP4 127 ka Tier 1 simulations, forced solely by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations, do not capture the magnitude of this warming. Here we follow up on previous work that suggests the importance of preceding deglaciation meltwater release into the North Atlantic for the early last interglacial climate. We run a 3000-year 128 ka simulation using HadCM3 with a 0.25 Sv North Atlantic freshwater hosing, which approximates the PMIP4 127 ka Tier 2 H11 (Heinrich event 11) simulation. The hosed 128 ka HadCM3 simulation captures much of the warming and sea ice loss shown in the four data syntheses at 127 ka relative to preindustrial: south of 40° S, modeled annual sea surface temperature (SST) rises by 1.3 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 0.6 °C, while reconstructed average anomalies range from 2.2 to 2.7 °C; modeled summer SST increases by 1.1 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 0.7 °C, close to the 1.2–2.2 °C reconstructed average anomalies; September sea ice area (SIA) is reduced by 40 <span class="inline-formula"><i>%</i></span>, similar to the reconstructed 40 <span class="inline-formula">%</span> reduction of sea ice concentration (SIC); over the Antarctic Ice Sheet, modeled annual surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 2.6 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 0.4 °C, even larger than reconstructed average anomalies of 2.2 °C. Our results suggest that the impacts of meltwater from deglaciating ice sheets need to be considered to simulate the Southern Ocean and Antarctic changes at 127 ka.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-baa8ae28602f41a88ef472ab8720687e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1814-9324 1814-9332 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate of the Past |
| spelling | doaj-art-baa8ae28602f41a88ef472ab8720687e2025-02-07T09:39:14ZengCopernicus PublicationsClimate of the Past1814-93241814-93322025-02-012141944010.5194/cp-21-419-2025Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data synthesesQ. Gao0Q. Gao1Q. Gao2E. Capron3L. C. Sime4R. H. Rhodes5R. Sivankutty6X. Zhang7B. L. Otto-Bliesner8M. Werner9Ice Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United KingdomDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdomnow at: School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, AustraliaUniversité Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, FranceIce Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United KingdomDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United KingdomIce Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United KingdomIce Dynamics and Paleoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United KingdomClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany<p>Given relatively abundant paleo-proxies, the study of the last interglacial (LIG, <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 129–116 000 years ago, ka) is valuable to understanding the responses and feedback of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in a warmer-than-preindustrial climate. The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4) coordinated LIG model simulations which focus on 127 ka. Here we evaluate 12 PMIP4 127 ka Tier 1 model simulations against four recent paleoclimate syntheses of LIG sea and air temperatures and sea ice concentrations. The four syntheses include 99 reconstructions, and all syntheses support the presence of a warmer Southern Ocean, with reduced sea ice and a warmer Antarctica at 127 ka compared to the preindustrial. The PMIP4 127 ka Tier 1 simulations, forced solely by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations, do not capture the magnitude of this warming. Here we follow up on previous work that suggests the importance of preceding deglaciation meltwater release into the North Atlantic for the early last interglacial climate. We run a 3000-year 128 ka simulation using HadCM3 with a 0.25 Sv North Atlantic freshwater hosing, which approximates the PMIP4 127 ka Tier 2 H11 (Heinrich event 11) simulation. The hosed 128 ka HadCM3 simulation captures much of the warming and sea ice loss shown in the four data syntheses at 127 ka relative to preindustrial: south of 40° S, modeled annual sea surface temperature (SST) rises by 1.3 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 0.6 °C, while reconstructed average anomalies range from 2.2 to 2.7 °C; modeled summer SST increases by 1.1 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 0.7 °C, close to the 1.2–2.2 °C reconstructed average anomalies; September sea ice area (SIA) is reduced by 40 <span class="inline-formula"><i>%</i></span>, similar to the reconstructed 40 <span class="inline-formula">%</span> reduction of sea ice concentration (SIC); over the Antarctic Ice Sheet, modeled annual surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 2.6 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 0.4 °C, even larger than reconstructed average anomalies of 2.2 °C. Our results suggest that the impacts of meltwater from deglaciating ice sheets need to be considered to simulate the Southern Ocean and Antarctic changes at 127 ka.</p>https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/419/2025/cp-21-419-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Q. Gao Q. Gao Q. Gao E. Capron L. C. Sime R. H. Rhodes R. Sivankutty X. Zhang B. L. Otto-Bliesner M. Werner Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses Climate of the Past |
| title | Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses |
| title_full | Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses |
| title_short | Assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the PMIP4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses |
| title_sort | assessment of the southern polar and subpolar warming in the pmip4 last interglacial simulations using paleoclimate data syntheses |
| url | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/419/2025/cp-21-419-2025.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT qgao assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT qgao assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT qgao assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT ecapron assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT lcsime assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT rhrhodes assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT rsivankutty assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT xzhang assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT blottobliesner assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses AT mwerner assessmentofthesouthernpolarandsubpolarwarminginthepmip4lastinterglacialsimulationsusingpaleoclimatedatasyntheses |