Quantifying temporal niche abundance through environmental predictability and seasonality: A novel framework for biodiversity assessment

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are exacerbating biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, making effective biodiversity assessment strategies a critical prerequisite for addressing these challenges. Current assessment strategies, however, suffer from limitations in sample size and di...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Lei Huang, Futing Zhao, Shuwen Guo, Li Liu, Rongguang Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-07-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005692
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Summary:Climate change and anthropogenic activities are exacerbating biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, making effective biodiversity assessment strategies a critical prerequisite for addressing these challenges. Current assessment strategies, however, suffer from limitations in sample size and diversity representation, particularly in large-scale assessments, leading to compromised evaluation accuracy. Consequently, developing practical and reliable biodiversity assessment methodologies remains a priority for research in this field. To address this gap, we propose an innovative framework integrating movement ecology and niche theory to quantify temporal niche abundance — a novel biodiversity proxy based on environmental predictability and seasonality. Focusing on the southern foothills of Qilian Mountains, we employed Colwell’s indices and wavelet analysis to analyze seasonality and predictability patterns of temperature and precipitation. The temporal niche abundance derived from each environmental parameter was then synthesized to reveal spatial patterns of environmental suitability and stress for biodiversity from a niche perspective. Our findings demonstrate a marked northeast-to-southwest transition from high suitability to environmental stress across the study area, with notable degradation concentrated in altitudinal transition zones. Comparative analysis confirms the reliability of combining seasonality and predictability for regional biodiversity assessment, while the spatial suitability-stress distribution provides valuable guidance for conservation prioritization. Furthermore, we propose that “temporal niche pools” could serve as spatial anchors for conserving temporal biodiversity. In summary, this work elucidates mechanisms underlying biodiversity patterns while introducing an efficient assessment framework, offering methodological and practical insights for future biodiversity conservation and monitoring initiatives.
ISSN:1470-160X