FORECAST MODELING OF FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX PRODUCTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ROMANIA
The article presents forecast modeling of foreign trade between Ukraine and Romania by separate groups of agro-industrial goods. Indicators were forecast for three years (2022-2024) based on actual data for eleven years (2011-2021). Five trend models (exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Bucharest
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Papers Series : Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development |
| Online Access: | https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.22_3/Art86.pdf |
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| _version_ | 1849691968941064192 |
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| author | Olesia TOTSKA |
| author_facet | Olesia TOTSKA |
| author_sort | Olesia TOTSKA |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article presents forecast modeling of foreign trade between Ukraine and Romania by separate groups of agro-industrial goods. Indicators were forecast for three years (2022-2024) based on actual data for eleven years (2011-2021). Five trend models (exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) were constructed for each indicator and only one with the highest value of the reliability of the approximation R² was selected. The constructed trend models indicate a positive trend in 2022-2024 for preparations of grains, cocoa and cocoa preparations, sugar and sugar confectionery, animal or plant fats and oils; in 2023-2024 – for meat and meat preparations, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, vinegar. At the same time, the forecast models indicate an increase in imports of tobacco and its industrial substitutes in 2023-2024, a decrease in imports of cereals over the same period, an increase in imports of other mixed foodstuffs in 2022-2024. Of the nine selected models, six are polynomial, one is power, one is logarithmic, and one is exponential. Two of them have a very high degree of reliability of the approximation R² (>0.9) and, accordingly, a high probability of forecast prediction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ba6d2c836cda49908082846c4f17de42 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2284-7995 2285-3952 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Bucharest |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Papers Series : Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development |
| spelling | doaj-art-ba6d2c836cda49908082846c4f17de422025-08-20T03:20:51ZengUniversity of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, BucharestScientific Papers Series : Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development2284-79952285-39522022-01-012237777821020FORECAST MODELING OF FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX PRODUCTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ROMANIAOlesia TOTSKAThe article presents forecast modeling of foreign trade between Ukraine and Romania by separate groups of agro-industrial goods. Indicators were forecast for three years (2022-2024) based on actual data for eleven years (2011-2021). Five trend models (exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) were constructed for each indicator and only one with the highest value of the reliability of the approximation R² was selected. The constructed trend models indicate a positive trend in 2022-2024 for preparations of grains, cocoa and cocoa preparations, sugar and sugar confectionery, animal or plant fats and oils; in 2023-2024 – for meat and meat preparations, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, vinegar. At the same time, the forecast models indicate an increase in imports of tobacco and its industrial substitutes in 2023-2024, a decrease in imports of cereals over the same period, an increase in imports of other mixed foodstuffs in 2022-2024. Of the nine selected models, six are polynomial, one is power, one is logarithmic, and one is exponential. Two of them have a very high degree of reliability of the approximation R² (>0.9) and, accordingly, a high probability of forecast prediction.https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.22_3/Art86.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Olesia TOTSKA FORECAST MODELING OF FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX PRODUCTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ROMANIA Scientific Papers Series : Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development |
| title | FORECAST MODELING OF FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX PRODUCTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ROMANIA |
| title_full | FORECAST MODELING OF FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX PRODUCTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ROMANIA |
| title_fullStr | FORECAST MODELING OF FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX PRODUCTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ROMANIA |
| title_full_unstemmed | FORECAST MODELING OF FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX PRODUCTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ROMANIA |
| title_short | FORECAST MODELING OF FOREIGN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX PRODUCTS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ROMANIA |
| title_sort | forecast modeling of foreign trade in agricultural complex products between ukraine and romania |
| url | https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.22_3/Art86.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT olesiatotska forecastmodelingofforeigntradeinagriculturalcomplexproductsbetweenukraineandromania |