Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations
Abstract This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the summertime hourly extreme rainfall event (HER) over South Korea. The UKESM-forced regional climate model is utilized to simulate HER over South Korea in the historical (2001–2005) and future periods (2091–2095) under the SSP1-2.6 and S...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01067-z |
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| author | Ga-Yeong Seo Seung-Ki Min Donghyun Lee Seok-Woo Son Chanil Park Dong-Hyun Cha |
| author_facet | Ga-Yeong Seo Seung-Ki Min Donghyun Lee Seok-Woo Son Chanil Park Dong-Hyun Cha |
| author_sort | Ga-Yeong Seo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the summertime hourly extreme rainfall event (HER) over South Korea. The UKESM-forced regional climate model is utilized to simulate HER over South Korea in the historical (2001–2005) and future periods (2091–2095) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at a convection-permitting resolution (2.5 km). A significant increase in future HER intensity and frequency appears in July, with the frequency increases about two times for SSP1-2.6 and about 3.7 times for SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The month of maximum HER frequency is also projected to shift from August to July. When clustering the HERs into six representative weather patterns, SSP5-8.5 scenarios show a predominant increase in weather patterns characterized by a frontal boundary between low and high pressure in July. Our results suggest that the future sub-seasonal evolution of HER over South Korea may change with the intensification of subtropical high and the deepening of mid-level trough according to different future scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ba2aed77014e4af48dd87c61fde02d0e |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-ba2aed77014e4af48dd87c61fde02d0e2025-08-20T02:05:47ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-06-018111210.1038/s41612-025-01067-zHourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulationsGa-Yeong Seo0Seung-Ki Min1Donghyun Lee2Seok-Woo Son3Chanil Park4Dong-Hyun Cha5Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and TechnologyDivision of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Physics, Imperial College LondonSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National UniversityDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston CollegeDepartment of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and TechnologyAbstract This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the summertime hourly extreme rainfall event (HER) over South Korea. The UKESM-forced regional climate model is utilized to simulate HER over South Korea in the historical (2001–2005) and future periods (2091–2095) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at a convection-permitting resolution (2.5 km). A significant increase in future HER intensity and frequency appears in July, with the frequency increases about two times for SSP1-2.6 and about 3.7 times for SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The month of maximum HER frequency is also projected to shift from August to July. When clustering the HERs into six representative weather patterns, SSP5-8.5 scenarios show a predominant increase in weather patterns characterized by a frontal boundary between low and high pressure in July. Our results suggest that the future sub-seasonal evolution of HER over South Korea may change with the intensification of subtropical high and the deepening of mid-level trough according to different future scenarios.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01067-z |
| spellingShingle | Ga-Yeong Seo Seung-Ki Min Donghyun Lee Seok-Woo Son Chanil Park Dong-Hyun Cha Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations |
| title_full | Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations |
| title_fullStr | Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations |
| title_short | Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations |
| title_sort | hourly extreme rainfall projections over south korea using convection permitting climate simulations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01067-z |
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