PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE
Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is one of the key indicators to determine the economic condition of a region in a certain period. GRDP at constant prices has a positive and significant effect on economic growth . This study aims to predict economic growth in East Java before and during the Co...
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Universitas Pattimura
2023-12-01
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| Online Access: | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/9607 |
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| author | Ronny Susetyoko Edi Satriyanto Alfi Fadliana Fitrah Maharani Humaira |
| author_facet | Ronny Susetyoko Edi Satriyanto Alfi Fadliana Fitrah Maharani Humaira |
| author_sort | Ronny Susetyoko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is one of the key indicators to determine the economic condition of a region in a certain period. GRDP at constant prices has a positive and significant effect on economic growth . This study aims to predict economic growth in East Java before and during the Covid-19 pandemic based on the structural components of regional revenue and expenditure budget realization using panel data regression with data sources from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance. The results of this study, the best model is the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with R-Squared 0.99991 and Adj. R-Squared 0.99987. MSE, MAD and MAPE values on the training data are 338724.9919, 259.7182 and 0.6296 respectively. While the MSE, MAD and MAPE values in the testing data are 1716324.2736, 445.7959 and 1.0692 respectively. At the 95% confidence level, Locally Generated Revenue (LGR), Transfers to Regional and Village Funds (TRVF), and Other Revenue (OR) are not significant in the model or have little effect. But at the 99.9% confidence level, all factors (cross section) have a very significant effect. This can be interpreted that local wisdom, or the characteristics of each region/city has a major contribution to economic growth. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ba232c6aa32a4632b2545532b3c2c4e3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1978-7227 2615-3017 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Pattimura |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Barekeng |
| spelling | doaj-art-ba232c6aa32a4632b2545532b3c2c4e32025-08-20T04:00:55ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172023-12-011742121213410.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp2121-21349607PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCERonny Susetyoko0Edi Satriyanto1Alfi Fadliana2Fitrah Maharani Humaira3Department of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Surabaya State Electronics Polytechnic, IndonesiaDepartment of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Surabaya State Electronics Polytechnic, IndonesiaDepartment of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Surabaya State Electronics Polytechnic, IndonesiaDepartment of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Surabaya State Electronics Polytechnic, IndonesiaGross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is one of the key indicators to determine the economic condition of a region in a certain period. GRDP at constant prices has a positive and significant effect on economic growth . This study aims to predict economic growth in East Java before and during the Covid-19 pandemic based on the structural components of regional revenue and expenditure budget realization using panel data regression with data sources from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance. The results of this study, the best model is the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with R-Squared 0.99991 and Adj. R-Squared 0.99987. MSE, MAD and MAPE values on the training data are 338724.9919, 259.7182 and 0.6296 respectively. While the MSE, MAD and MAPE values in the testing data are 1716324.2736, 445.7959 and 1.0692 respectively. At the 95% confidence level, Locally Generated Revenue (LGR), Transfers to Regional and Village Funds (TRVF), and Other Revenue (OR) are not significant in the model or have little effect. But at the 99.9% confidence level, all factors (cross section) have a very significant effect. This can be interpreted that local wisdom, or the characteristics of each region/city has a major contribution to economic growth.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/9607cross sectioneconomic growthfixed effect modelgrdppanel data regression |
| spellingShingle | Ronny Susetyoko Edi Satriyanto Alfi Fadliana Fitrah Maharani Humaira PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE Barekeng cross section economic growth fixed effect model grdp panel data regression |
| title | PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE |
| title_full | PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE |
| title_fullStr | PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE |
| title_full_unstemmed | PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE |
| title_short | PANEL DATA REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ECONOMIC GROWTH BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE |
| title_sort | panel data regression model for predicting economic growth before and during the covid 19 pandemic in east java province |
| topic | cross section economic growth fixed effect model grdp panel data regression |
| url | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/9607 |
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