Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market

The last financial crisis affected the SMEs sector in different countries at different levels and strength. SMEs represent the backbone of the economy of every country. Therefore, they need bankruptcy prediction models easily adaptable to their characteristics. In our analysis we verified hypothesis...

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Main Authors: Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska, Anna Matuszyk
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu 2019-01-01
Series:Ekonometria
Online Access:https://journals.ue.wroc.pl/eada/article/view/903
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author Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska
Anna Matuszyk
author_facet Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska
Anna Matuszyk
author_sort Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska
collection DOAJ
description The last financial crisis affected the SMEs sector in different countries at different levels and strength. SMEs represent the backbone of the economy of every country. Therefore, they need bankruptcy prediction models easily adaptable to their characteristics. In our analysis we verified hypothesis: including information about macroeconomic conditions significantly increases the effectiveness of the bankruptcy model. The data set used in our research contained information about 1,138 SMEs. All information was taken from the financial statements covering the period 2002-2010. The sample included enterprises from sectors: industry, trade and services. Selected financial ratios were used to build the model and the macroeconomic variables were added: GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate. Logistic regression as the research method was applied. In our study we showed that the incorporation of the macro variables improved the prediction of the SMEs bankruptcy risk.(original abstract)
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publisher Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
record_format Article
series Ekonometria
spelling doaj-art-b97b84861ddf45f3aeff9f7ea94ce5f02025-08-20T02:16:39ZengWydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we WrocławiuEkonometria2449-99942019-01-01nr 3904Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish MarketAneta Ptak-Chmielewska0Anna Matuszyk1Warsaw School of Economics, PolandWarsaw School of Economics, PolandThe last financial crisis affected the SMEs sector in different countries at different levels and strength. SMEs represent the backbone of the economy of every country. Therefore, they need bankruptcy prediction models easily adaptable to their characteristics. In our analysis we verified hypothesis: including information about macroeconomic conditions significantly increases the effectiveness of the bankruptcy model. The data set used in our research contained information about 1,138 SMEs. All information was taken from the financial statements covering the period 2002-2010. The sample included enterprises from sectors: industry, trade and services. Selected financial ratios were used to build the model and the macroeconomic variables were added: GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate. Logistic regression as the research method was applied. In our study we showed that the incorporation of the macro variables improved the prediction of the SMEs bankruptcy risk.(original abstract)https://journals.ue.wroc.pl/eada/article/view/903
spellingShingle Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska
Anna Matuszyk
Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market
Ekonometria
title Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market
title_full Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market
title_fullStr Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market
title_full_unstemmed Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market
title_short Macroeconomic Factors in Modelling the SMEs Bankruptcy Risk. The Case of the Polish Market
title_sort macroeconomic factors in modelling the smes bankruptcy risk the case of the polish market
url https://journals.ue.wroc.pl/eada/article/view/903
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AT annamatuszyk macroeconomicfactorsinmodellingthesmesbankruptcyriskthecaseofthepolishmarket