Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Immunization of pregnant women against seasonal influenza remains limited in low- and lower-middle-income countries despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO/PATH Maternal Influenza Immunization Project was created to identify and address obstacles to delivering influ...

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Main Authors: Frédéric Debellut, Nathaniel Hendrix, Justin R Ortiz, Philipp Lambach, Kathleen M Neuzil, Niranjan Bhat, Clint Pecenka
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2018-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199470&type=printable
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author Frédéric Debellut
Nathaniel Hendrix
Justin R Ortiz
Philipp Lambach
Kathleen M Neuzil
Niranjan Bhat
Clint Pecenka
author_facet Frédéric Debellut
Nathaniel Hendrix
Justin R Ortiz
Philipp Lambach
Kathleen M Neuzil
Niranjan Bhat
Clint Pecenka
author_sort Frédéric Debellut
collection DOAJ
description Immunization of pregnant women against seasonal influenza remains limited in low- and lower-middle-income countries despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO/PATH Maternal Influenza Immunization Project was created to identify and address obstacles to delivering influenza vaccines to pregnant women in low resource setting. To gain a better understanding of potential demand from this target group, we developed a model simulating pregnant women populations eligible for vaccination during antenatal care (ANC) services in all low- and lower-middle-income countries. We assessed potential vaccine demand in the context of both seasonal and year-round vaccination strategies and identified the ways that immunization programs may be affected by availability gaps in supply linked to current vaccine production cycles and shelf life duration. Results of our analysis, which includes 54 eligible countries in 2015 for New Vaccine Support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, suggest the demand for influenza vaccines could be 7.7 to 16.0 million doses in 2020, and 27.0 to 61.7 million doses by 2029. If current trends in production capacity and actual production of seasonal influenza vaccines were to continue, global vaccine supply would be sufficient to meet this additional demand-although a majority of countries would face implementation issues linked to timing of supply.
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spelling doaj-art-b960111ce1c044888ddfccd7b0ef671d2025-08-20T03:04:35ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032018-01-01136e019947010.1371/journal.pone.0199470Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.Frédéric DebellutNathaniel HendrixJustin R OrtizPhilipp LambachKathleen M NeuzilNiranjan BhatClint PecenkaImmunization of pregnant women against seasonal influenza remains limited in low- and lower-middle-income countries despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO/PATH Maternal Influenza Immunization Project was created to identify and address obstacles to delivering influenza vaccines to pregnant women in low resource setting. To gain a better understanding of potential demand from this target group, we developed a model simulating pregnant women populations eligible for vaccination during antenatal care (ANC) services in all low- and lower-middle-income countries. We assessed potential vaccine demand in the context of both seasonal and year-round vaccination strategies and identified the ways that immunization programs may be affected by availability gaps in supply linked to current vaccine production cycles and shelf life duration. Results of our analysis, which includes 54 eligible countries in 2015 for New Vaccine Support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, suggest the demand for influenza vaccines could be 7.7 to 16.0 million doses in 2020, and 27.0 to 61.7 million doses by 2029. If current trends in production capacity and actual production of seasonal influenza vaccines were to continue, global vaccine supply would be sufficient to meet this additional demand-although a majority of countries would face implementation issues linked to timing of supply.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199470&type=printable
spellingShingle Frédéric Debellut
Nathaniel Hendrix
Justin R Ortiz
Philipp Lambach
Kathleen M Neuzil
Niranjan Bhat
Clint Pecenka
Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
PLoS ONE
title Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
title_full Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
title_fullStr Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
title_short Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
title_sort forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low and lower middle income countries
url https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199470&type=printable
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