The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis
Abstract Introduction The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent public health measures on trends of homicide and suicide in various settings remain unclear. There has been little attention paid to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trends of homicide and suicide in African countries....
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| Format: | Article |
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BMC
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Injury Epidemiology |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-025-00592-y |
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| author | Shathani Mugoma Doug Wiebe Peter S. Larson Yun Li Gregory P. Bisson |
| author_facet | Shathani Mugoma Doug Wiebe Peter S. Larson Yun Li Gregory P. Bisson |
| author_sort | Shathani Mugoma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Introduction The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent public health measures on trends of homicide and suicide in various settings remain unclear. There has been little attention paid to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trends of homicide and suicide in African countries. Methods We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on monthly homicide and suicide trends in Botswana. Using forensic registers from the Forensic Pathology Unit of the Botswana Police Service, we compared mean incidence and trends before, during, and after the State of Emergency (SoE), stratifying by age and sex. Results Our study analyzed 2,225 autopsies from January 1, 2018, to September 30, 2022, comprising of 1,479 homicides and 746 suicides. Monthly autopsy rates were lower during the SoE (median 32, IQR: 11.5) compared to pre-SoE (40, IQR: 15.8) and post-SoE (46, IQR: 11.5) periods. Homicide rates were 28 (IQR: 7.5), 19 (IQR: 7), and 29.5 (IQR: 10) for pre-SoE, SoE, and post-SoE, respectively, while suicide rates were 12.5 (IQR: 4), 13 (IQR: 6), and 16.5 (IQR: 4.75). Conclusions Our findings indicate a reduction in homicide and suicide incidence during the SoE, with a return to pre-pandemic levels thereafter. Public health professionals can leverage these insights to identify actionable factors for reducing suicide and homicide risks in future crises. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b9320e1cbe9c4cfc8f0db056f8778b33 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2197-1714 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Injury Epidemiology |
| spelling | doaj-art-b9320e1cbe9c4cfc8f0db056f8778b332025-08-20T03:04:17ZengBMCInjury Epidemiology2197-17142025-07-0112111210.1186/s40621-025-00592-yThe impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysisShathani Mugoma0Doug Wiebe1Peter S. Larson2Yun Li3Gregory P. Bisson4Forensic Science ServiceDepartment of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of BotswanaDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan Injury Prevention Center, University of MichiganDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of PennsylvaniaDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of PennsylvaniaAbstract Introduction The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent public health measures on trends of homicide and suicide in various settings remain unclear. There has been little attention paid to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trends of homicide and suicide in African countries. Methods We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on monthly homicide and suicide trends in Botswana. Using forensic registers from the Forensic Pathology Unit of the Botswana Police Service, we compared mean incidence and trends before, during, and after the State of Emergency (SoE), stratifying by age and sex. Results Our study analyzed 2,225 autopsies from January 1, 2018, to September 30, 2022, comprising of 1,479 homicides and 746 suicides. Monthly autopsy rates were lower during the SoE (median 32, IQR: 11.5) compared to pre-SoE (40, IQR: 15.8) and post-SoE (46, IQR: 11.5) periods. Homicide rates were 28 (IQR: 7.5), 19 (IQR: 7), and 29.5 (IQR: 10) for pre-SoE, SoE, and post-SoE, respectively, while suicide rates were 12.5 (IQR: 4), 13 (IQR: 6), and 16.5 (IQR: 4.75). Conclusions Our findings indicate a reduction in homicide and suicide incidence during the SoE, with a return to pre-pandemic levels thereafter. Public health professionals can leverage these insights to identify actionable factors for reducing suicide and homicide risks in future crises.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-025-00592-y |
| spellingShingle | Shathani Mugoma Doug Wiebe Peter S. Larson Yun Li Gregory P. Bisson The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis Injury Epidemiology |
| title | The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis |
| title_full | The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis |
| title_fullStr | The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis |
| title_short | The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis |
| title_sort | impact of covid 19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in botswana using an interrupted time series analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-025-00592-y |
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