Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission.
Since the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. Here, we generated an agent-based, mechanistic model designed to asse...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-12-01
|
| Series: | PLoS Computational Biology |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009690&type=printable |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850235511736631296 |
|---|---|
| author | Michael Famulare Wesley Wong Rashidul Haque James A Platts-Mills Parimalendu Saha Asma B Aziz Tahmina Ahmed Md Ohedul Islam Md Jashim Uddin Ananda S Bandyopadhyay Mohammed Yunus Khalequ Zaman Mami Taniuchi |
| author_facet | Michael Famulare Wesley Wong Rashidul Haque James A Platts-Mills Parimalendu Saha Asma B Aziz Tahmina Ahmed Md Ohedul Islam Md Jashim Uddin Ananda S Bandyopadhyay Mohammed Yunus Khalequ Zaman Mami Taniuchi |
| author_sort | Michael Famulare |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Since the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. Here, we generated an agent-based, mechanistic model designed to assess OPV-related vaccine virus transmission risk in populations with heterogeneous immunity, demography, and social mixing patterns. To showcase the utility of our model, we present a simulation of mOPV2-related Sabin 2 transmission in rural Matlab, Bangladesh based on stool samples collected from infants and their household contacts during an mOPV2 clinical trial. Sabin 2 transmission following the mOPV2 clinical trial was replicated by specifying multiple, heterogeneous contact rates based on household and community membership. Once calibrated, the model generated Matlab-specific insights regarding poliovirus transmission following an accidental point importation or mass vaccination event. We also show that assuming homogeneous contact rates (mass action), as is common of poliovirus forecast models, does not accurately represent the clinical trial and risks overestimating forecasted poliovirus outbreak probability. Our study identifies household and community structure as an important source of transmission heterogeneity when assessing OPV-related transmission risk and provides a calibratable framework for expanding these analyses to other populations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02477046. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b91c22edc02447ccab047ebdc942d67b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Computational Biology |
| spelling | doaj-art-b91c22edc02447ccab047ebdc942d67b2025-08-20T02:02:13ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Computational Biology1553-734X1553-73582021-12-011712e100969010.1371/journal.pcbi.1009690Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission.Michael FamulareWesley WongRashidul HaqueJames A Platts-MillsParimalendu SahaAsma B AzizTahmina AhmedMd Ohedul IslamMd Jashim UddinAnanda S BandyopadhyayMohammed YunusKhalequ ZamanMami TaniuchiSince the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. Here, we generated an agent-based, mechanistic model designed to assess OPV-related vaccine virus transmission risk in populations with heterogeneous immunity, demography, and social mixing patterns. To showcase the utility of our model, we present a simulation of mOPV2-related Sabin 2 transmission in rural Matlab, Bangladesh based on stool samples collected from infants and their household contacts during an mOPV2 clinical trial. Sabin 2 transmission following the mOPV2 clinical trial was replicated by specifying multiple, heterogeneous contact rates based on household and community membership. Once calibrated, the model generated Matlab-specific insights regarding poliovirus transmission following an accidental point importation or mass vaccination event. We also show that assuming homogeneous contact rates (mass action), as is common of poliovirus forecast models, does not accurately represent the clinical trial and risks overestimating forecasted poliovirus outbreak probability. Our study identifies household and community structure as an important source of transmission heterogeneity when assessing OPV-related transmission risk and provides a calibratable framework for expanding these analyses to other populations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02477046.https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009690&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Michael Famulare Wesley Wong Rashidul Haque James A Platts-Mills Parimalendu Saha Asma B Aziz Tahmina Ahmed Md Ohedul Islam Md Jashim Uddin Ananda S Bandyopadhyay Mohammed Yunus Khalequ Zaman Mami Taniuchi Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission. PLoS Computational Biology |
| title | Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission. |
| title_full | Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission. |
| title_fullStr | Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission. |
| title_short | Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission. |
| title_sort | multiscale model for forecasting sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009690&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT michaelfamulare multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT wesleywong multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT rashidulhaque multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT jamesaplattsmills multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT parimalendusaha multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT asmabaziz multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT tahminaahmed multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT mdohedulislam multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT mdjashimuddin multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT anandasbandyopadhyay multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT mohammedyunus multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT khalequzaman multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission AT mamitaniuchi multiscalemodelforforecastingsabin2vaccinevirushouseholdandcommunitytransmission |