A decision-making framework based on rain-fed crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits for determination multiple-crop rotation strategy
Water scarcity under global climate change has impacted decreased agricultural productivity. Determining the suitable crop rotation strategy under water scarcity applicable to a specific region requires an evaluation of crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits to farmers. This paper a...
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Water Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424005365 |
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| author | Yu-Pin Lin Chia- Chuan Hsu Shafira Wuryandani Feng-An Yang |
| author_facet | Yu-Pin Lin Chia- Chuan Hsu Shafira Wuryandani Feng-An Yang |
| author_sort | Yu-Pin Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Water scarcity under global climate change has impacted decreased agricultural productivity. Determining the suitable crop rotation strategy under water scarcity applicable to a specific region requires an evaluation of crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits to farmers. This paper aims to improve agricultural productivity and economic benefits through crop rotation strategies under climate change. We developed seven crop rotation strategies, including rice, soybean, maize, and sweet potatoes, that were determined based on preliminary results of the crop suitability index using the EcoCrop model. The water scarcity index (WSI) in historical and future under climate change conditions is estimated using the CropWAT model. In addition, the economic benefit of each crop rotation strategy is evaluated. Finally, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to select the most suitable crop rotation strategy applicable to Taoyuan City, Taiwan, based on crop suitability assessment, water scarcity, and economic benefit analysis. Our result shows that WSI values are 0.37, 0.50, and 2.28 in the dry years of 2004, 2015, and 2020, respectively, due to decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures. The 10-year and 20-year averages were 0.4 and 0.35, respectively, indicating that the issue of agricultural water scarcity is intensifying year by year. Cultivating sweet potatoes has less vulnerability to water scarcity by up to 90 % under climate change than rice. Sweet potatoes also generate farmers’ income, which increases by 338 %, considering both rain-fed and irrigation efficiency conditions. Finally, the MCDA-AHP revealed that sweet potatoes and soybean-maize rotation in Taoyuan City were the most suitable and profitable crops for cultivating in Taoyuan City, especially under high and severe agriculture water stress events. Implementing a crop rotation strategy involving sweet potatoes and soybean-maize can effectively mitigate the impact of climate change and extreme drought on crop yield and ensure a stable income for farmers. Integrated irrigation and crop rotation strategies are crucial for providing farmers and other stakeholders with more informed decision-making in agriculture sectors while enhancing water use efficiency. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b8a9ef81818341ab963cb43b64d83a99 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1873-2283 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Water Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-b8a9ef81818341ab963cb43b64d83a992025-08-20T01:55:34ZengElsevierAgricultural Water Management1873-22832024-12-0130610920010.1016/j.agwat.2024.109200A decision-making framework based on rain-fed crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits for determination multiple-crop rotation strategyYu-Pin Lin0Chia- Chuan Hsu1Shafira Wuryandani2Feng-An Yang3Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taiwan; Correspondence to: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, College of Bioresources and Agriculture, National Taiwan.Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, TaiwanDepartment of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, TaiwanDepartment of Agricultural Economics, National Taiwan University, TaiwanWater scarcity under global climate change has impacted decreased agricultural productivity. Determining the suitable crop rotation strategy under water scarcity applicable to a specific region requires an evaluation of crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits to farmers. This paper aims to improve agricultural productivity and economic benefits through crop rotation strategies under climate change. We developed seven crop rotation strategies, including rice, soybean, maize, and sweet potatoes, that were determined based on preliminary results of the crop suitability index using the EcoCrop model. The water scarcity index (WSI) in historical and future under climate change conditions is estimated using the CropWAT model. In addition, the economic benefit of each crop rotation strategy is evaluated. Finally, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to select the most suitable crop rotation strategy applicable to Taoyuan City, Taiwan, based on crop suitability assessment, water scarcity, and economic benefit analysis. Our result shows that WSI values are 0.37, 0.50, and 2.28 in the dry years of 2004, 2015, and 2020, respectively, due to decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures. The 10-year and 20-year averages were 0.4 and 0.35, respectively, indicating that the issue of agricultural water scarcity is intensifying year by year. Cultivating sweet potatoes has less vulnerability to water scarcity by up to 90 % under climate change than rice. Sweet potatoes also generate farmers’ income, which increases by 338 %, considering both rain-fed and irrigation efficiency conditions. Finally, the MCDA-AHP revealed that sweet potatoes and soybean-maize rotation in Taoyuan City were the most suitable and profitable crops for cultivating in Taoyuan City, especially under high and severe agriculture water stress events. Implementing a crop rotation strategy involving sweet potatoes and soybean-maize can effectively mitigate the impact of climate change and extreme drought on crop yield and ensure a stable income for farmers. Integrated irrigation and crop rotation strategies are crucial for providing farmers and other stakeholders with more informed decision-making in agriculture sectors while enhancing water use efficiency.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424005365Crop suitabilityWater scarcityClimate changeFood–water nexusMCDA-AHPEconomic benefits |
| spellingShingle | Yu-Pin Lin Chia- Chuan Hsu Shafira Wuryandani Feng-An Yang A decision-making framework based on rain-fed crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits for determination multiple-crop rotation strategy Agricultural Water Management Crop suitability Water scarcity Climate change Food–water nexus MCDA-AHP Economic benefits |
| title | A decision-making framework based on rain-fed crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits for determination multiple-crop rotation strategy |
| title_full | A decision-making framework based on rain-fed crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits for determination multiple-crop rotation strategy |
| title_fullStr | A decision-making framework based on rain-fed crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits for determination multiple-crop rotation strategy |
| title_full_unstemmed | A decision-making framework based on rain-fed crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits for determination multiple-crop rotation strategy |
| title_short | A decision-making framework based on rain-fed crop suitability, water scarcity, and economic benefits for determination multiple-crop rotation strategy |
| title_sort | decision making framework based on rain fed crop suitability water scarcity and economic benefits for determination multiple crop rotation strategy |
| topic | Crop suitability Water scarcity Climate change Food–water nexus MCDA-AHP Economic benefits |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424005365 |
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