Predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among NHS staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study
Objectives This study aims to determine key workforce variables (demographic, health and occupational) that predicted National Health Service (NHS) staff’s absence due to illness and expressed intention to leave their current profession.Design, setting and participants Staff from 18 NHS Trusts were...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2025-06-01
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| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/6/e097483.full |
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| author | Neil Greenberg Rosalind Raine Paul Moran Dominic Murphy Lauren J Scott Richard Morriss Sharon A M Stevelink Simon Wessely Ira Madan Chris Penfold Sarah Dorrington Anne Marie Rafferty Maria Theresa Redaniel Peter Aitken Danielle Lamb Rupa Bhundia Nora Trompeter |
| author_facet | Neil Greenberg Rosalind Raine Paul Moran Dominic Murphy Lauren J Scott Richard Morriss Sharon A M Stevelink Simon Wessely Ira Madan Chris Penfold Sarah Dorrington Anne Marie Rafferty Maria Theresa Redaniel Peter Aitken Danielle Lamb Rupa Bhundia Nora Trompeter |
| author_sort | Neil Greenberg |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives This study aims to determine key workforce variables (demographic, health and occupational) that predicted National Health Service (NHS) staff’s absence due to illness and expressed intention to leave their current profession.Design, setting and participants Staff from 18 NHS Trusts were surveyed between April 2020 and January 2021, and again approximately 12 months later.Outcome measures Logistic and linear regression were used to explore relationships between baseline exposures and four 12-month outcomes: absence due to COVID-19, absence due to non-COVID-19 illness, actively seeking employment outside current profession and regularly thinking about leaving current profession.Results 22 555 participants (out of a possible 152 286 employees; 15%) completed the baseline questionnaire. 10 831 participants completed the short follow-up questionnaire at 12 months and 5868 also completed the long questionnaire; these participants were included in the analyses of sickness absence and intention to leave, respectively. 20% of participants took 5+ days of work absence for non-COVID-19 sickness in the 12 months between baseline and 12-month questionnaire; 14% took 5+ days of COVID-19-related sickness absence. At 12 months, 20% agreed or strongly agreed they were actively seeking employment outside their current profession; 24% thought about leaving their profession at least several times per week. Sickness absence (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 related) and intention to leave the profession (actively seeking another role and thinking about leaving) were all more common among NHS staff who were younger, in a COVID-19 risk group, had a probable mental health disorder, and who did not feel supported by colleagues and managers.Conclusions Several factors affected both workforce retention and sickness absence. Of particular interest are the impact of colleague and manager support because they are modifiable. The NHS workforce is likely to benefit from training managers to speak with and support staff, especially those experiencing mental health difficulties. Further, staff should be given sufficient opportunities to form and foster social connections. Selection bias may have affected the presented results. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b801e67f89bc4025a5de6009867f4cf3 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
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| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-b801e67f89bc4025a5de6009867f4cf32025-08-20T02:36:45ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552025-06-0115610.1136/bmjopen-2024-097483Predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among NHS staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort studyNeil Greenberg0Rosalind Raine1Paul Moran2Dominic Murphy3Lauren J Scott4Richard Morriss5Sharon A M Stevelink6Simon Wessely7Ira Madan8Chris Penfold9Sarah Dorrington10Anne Marie Rafferty11Maria Theresa Redaniel12Peter Aitken13Danielle Lamb14Rupa Bhundia15Nora Trompeter16Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UKResearch Department of Primary Care and Population Health, Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care, UCL, London, UKNational Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West), University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UKInstitute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UKNational Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West), University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UKUniversity of Nottingham, Nottingham, UKInstitute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UKInstitute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UKGuy`s and St Thomas’ Hospitals NHS Trust, London, UKNational Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West), University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UKInstitute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UKFlorence Nightingale Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery & Palliative Care, King’s College London, London, UKNational Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West), University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UKSussex Partnership NHS Foundation Trust, Sussex, UKDepartment of Applied Health Research, University College London, London, UKInstitute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UKInstitute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UKObjectives This study aims to determine key workforce variables (demographic, health and occupational) that predicted National Health Service (NHS) staff’s absence due to illness and expressed intention to leave their current profession.Design, setting and participants Staff from 18 NHS Trusts were surveyed between April 2020 and January 2021, and again approximately 12 months later.Outcome measures Logistic and linear regression were used to explore relationships between baseline exposures and four 12-month outcomes: absence due to COVID-19, absence due to non-COVID-19 illness, actively seeking employment outside current profession and regularly thinking about leaving current profession.Results 22 555 participants (out of a possible 152 286 employees; 15%) completed the baseline questionnaire. 10 831 participants completed the short follow-up questionnaire at 12 months and 5868 also completed the long questionnaire; these participants were included in the analyses of sickness absence and intention to leave, respectively. 20% of participants took 5+ days of work absence for non-COVID-19 sickness in the 12 months between baseline and 12-month questionnaire; 14% took 5+ days of COVID-19-related sickness absence. At 12 months, 20% agreed or strongly agreed they were actively seeking employment outside their current profession; 24% thought about leaving their profession at least several times per week. Sickness absence (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 related) and intention to leave the profession (actively seeking another role and thinking about leaving) were all more common among NHS staff who were younger, in a COVID-19 risk group, had a probable mental health disorder, and who did not feel supported by colleagues and managers.Conclusions Several factors affected both workforce retention and sickness absence. Of particular interest are the impact of colleague and manager support because they are modifiable. The NHS workforce is likely to benefit from training managers to speak with and support staff, especially those experiencing mental health difficulties. Further, staff should be given sufficient opportunities to form and foster social connections. Selection bias may have affected the presented results.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/6/e097483.full |
| spellingShingle | Neil Greenberg Rosalind Raine Paul Moran Dominic Murphy Lauren J Scott Richard Morriss Sharon A M Stevelink Simon Wessely Ira Madan Chris Penfold Sarah Dorrington Anne Marie Rafferty Maria Theresa Redaniel Peter Aitken Danielle Lamb Rupa Bhundia Nora Trompeter Predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among NHS staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study BMJ Open |
| title | Predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among NHS staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study |
| title_full | Predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among NHS staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study |
| title_fullStr | Predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among NHS staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among NHS staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study |
| title_short | Predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among NHS staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study |
| title_sort | predictors of sickness absence and intention to leave the profession among nhs staff in england during the covid 19 pandemic a prospective cohort study |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/6/e097483.full |
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