A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets

Abstract Due to the scarcity of in situ measurements in the thermosphere, the retrieval of thermospheric mass density primarily relies on model simulations or the inversion of satellite accelerometers and orbital data. Density derived from satellite inversion is more accurate, often reflecting the a...

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Main Authors: Yihan Wu, Dongyan Mao, Tian Mao, Zhou Chen, Jing‐Song Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-03-01
Series:Space Weather
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004289
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author Yihan Wu
Dongyan Mao
Tian Mao
Zhou Chen
Jing‐Song Wang
author_facet Yihan Wu
Dongyan Mao
Tian Mao
Zhou Chen
Jing‐Song Wang
author_sort Yihan Wu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Due to the scarcity of in situ measurements in the thermosphere, the retrieval of thermospheric mass density primarily relies on model simulations or the inversion of satellite accelerometers and orbital data. Density derived from satellite inversion is more accurate, often reflecting the actual density at the satellite altitude. However, due to the challenges of comprehensive spacecraft information retrieval as well as its accessibility, and the complexity of inversion methods, real‐time density data are generally not immediately available. Atmospheric density from model simulations can introduce errors, particularly exacerbated during geomagnetic storms, posing significant challenges for space missions. Wu et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ja032733) proposed a successful novel method to compute density proxy which shows small discrepancies with measured density, proving its reliability in describing actual thermospheric density. In this present paper, historical orbital data from spacecraft are used to obtain an orbital decay factor W during non‐storm periods. This factor is then combined with the derived density proxy to propose a novel space weather approach for the quasi‐real‐time assessment of satellite orbital decay during storms. Using the FY‐3G satellite as a case study, computed orbital decay rates are compared with measured values, validating the reliability of this space weather approach.
format Article
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issn 1542-7390
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series Space Weather
spelling doaj-art-b7ea824b01184e81a82085cbf776be352025-08-20T01:49:47ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902025-03-01233n/an/a10.1029/2024SW004289A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element SetsYihan Wu0Dongyan Mao1Tian Mao2Zhou Chen3Jing‐Song Wang4Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Space Weather National Satellite Meteorological Center (National Center for Space Weather) China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Space Weather National Satellite Meteorological Center (National Center for Space Weather) China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaInformation Engineering School Nanchang University Nanchang ChinaKey Laboratory of Space Weather National Satellite Meteorological Center (National Center for Space Weather) China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaAbstract Due to the scarcity of in situ measurements in the thermosphere, the retrieval of thermospheric mass density primarily relies on model simulations or the inversion of satellite accelerometers and orbital data. Density derived from satellite inversion is more accurate, often reflecting the actual density at the satellite altitude. However, due to the challenges of comprehensive spacecraft information retrieval as well as its accessibility, and the complexity of inversion methods, real‐time density data are generally not immediately available. Atmospheric density from model simulations can introduce errors, particularly exacerbated during geomagnetic storms, posing significant challenges for space missions. Wu et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ja032733) proposed a successful novel method to compute density proxy which shows small discrepancies with measured density, proving its reliability in describing actual thermospheric density. In this present paper, historical orbital data from spacecraft are used to obtain an orbital decay factor W during non‐storm periods. This factor is then combined with the derived density proxy to propose a novel space weather approach for the quasi‐real‐time assessment of satellite orbital decay during storms. Using the FY‐3G satellite as a case study, computed orbital decay rates are compared with measured values, validating the reliability of this space weather approach.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004289thermospheric densityspace weather approachtwo‐line element setsorbital decaydensity proxy
spellingShingle Yihan Wu
Dongyan Mao
Tian Mao
Zhou Chen
Jing‐Song Wang
A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets
Space Weather
thermospheric density
space weather approach
two‐line element sets
orbital decay
density proxy
title A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets
title_full A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets
title_fullStr A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets
title_full_unstemmed A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets
title_short A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets
title_sort space weather approach for quasi real time assessment of satellite orbital decay during geomagnetic storms based on two line element sets
topic thermospheric density
space weather approach
two‐line element sets
orbital decay
density proxy
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004289
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