Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations
Abstract This study investigates the projected impact of air pollution on mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across SAARC countries. Utilizing Time Series and Machine Learning methodologies such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network,...
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Nature Portfolio
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76760-9 |
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| author | Amna Amer Nadia Mushtaq Olayan Albalawi Muhammad Hanif Emad E. Mahmoud Muhammad Nabi |
| author_facet | Amna Amer Nadia Mushtaq Olayan Albalawi Muhammad Hanif Emad E. Mahmoud Muhammad Nabi |
| author_sort | Amna Amer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study investigates the projected impact of air pollution on mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across SAARC countries. Utilizing Time Series and Machine Learning methodologies such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network, the research aims to accurately forecast the mortality and DALYs attributed to air pollution from 2020 to 2030. Statistical analyses reveal a consistent upward trend in deaths and DALYs during the forecasting period, primarily driven by Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APM) and Ambient Ozone Pollution (AOP). Comparing the predictive accuracy of the models, Neural Network outperformed other methods, as indicated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. Specifically, the study finds that deaths and DALYs due to Ambient Particulate Matter pollution are least prevalent in the Maldives, while India and Pakistan exhibit the highest rates, and deaths and DALYs due to Ambient Ozone pollution are lowest in the Maldives and highest in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Moreover, deaths and DALYs attributed to Household Air Pollution (HAP) are lowest in Pakistan and highest in Nepal. These findings underscore the urgent need for air pollution control measures and informed policymaking in SAARC countries to mitigate the escalating health burden associated with air pollution. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b7ae6697aa4341a78026dabb22c8e6ac |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-b7ae6697aa4341a78026dabb22c8e6ac2025-08-20T02:18:28ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-10-0114111610.1038/s41598-024-76760-9Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nationsAmna Amer0Nadia Mushtaq1Olayan Albalawi2Muhammad Hanif3Emad E. Mahmoud4Muhammad Nabi5Department of Statistics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University)Department of Statistics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University)Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of TabukNational College of Business Administration and EconomicsDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Collage of Science, Taif UniversityKhost Mechanics InstituteAbstract This study investigates the projected impact of air pollution on mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across SAARC countries. Utilizing Time Series and Machine Learning methodologies such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network, the research aims to accurately forecast the mortality and DALYs attributed to air pollution from 2020 to 2030. Statistical analyses reveal a consistent upward trend in deaths and DALYs during the forecasting period, primarily driven by Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APM) and Ambient Ozone Pollution (AOP). Comparing the predictive accuracy of the models, Neural Network outperformed other methods, as indicated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. Specifically, the study finds that deaths and DALYs due to Ambient Particulate Matter pollution are least prevalent in the Maldives, while India and Pakistan exhibit the highest rates, and deaths and DALYs due to Ambient Ozone pollution are lowest in the Maldives and highest in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Moreover, deaths and DALYs attributed to Household Air Pollution (HAP) are lowest in Pakistan and highest in Nepal. These findings underscore the urgent need for air pollution control measures and informed policymaking in SAARC countries to mitigate the escalating health burden associated with air pollution.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76760-9SAARCDeathsDALYsAPMHAPAOP |
| spellingShingle | Amna Amer Nadia Mushtaq Olayan Albalawi Muhammad Hanif Emad E. Mahmoud Muhammad Nabi Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations Scientific Reports SAARC Deaths DALYs APM HAP AOP |
| title | Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations |
| title_full | Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations |
| title_short | Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations |
| title_sort | forecasting mortality and dalys from air pollution in saarc nations |
| topic | SAARC Deaths DALYs APM HAP AOP |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76760-9 |
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