Assessing Groundwater Drought Hazard in Groundwater Depletion Regions: Recommendations for Large‐Scale Drought Early Warning Systems
Abstract In groundwater depletion (GWD) regions, negative trends in groundwater storage (GWS) are problematic for groundwater drought detection, since they mask climate‐induced drought signals. As this is not yet considered in any large‐scale drought early warning system (LDEWS), we used GWS from th...
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Wiley
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Water Resources Research |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038684 |
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| author | Claudia Herbert Petra Döll |
| author_facet | Claudia Herbert Petra Döll |
| author_sort | Claudia Herbert |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In groundwater depletion (GWD) regions, negative trends in groundwater storage (GWS) are problematic for groundwater drought detection, since they mask climate‐induced drought signals. As this is not yet considered in any large‐scale drought early warning system (LDEWS), we used GWS from the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2e to investigate, for the first time at the global scale, how groundwater drought can best be quantified in GWD regions. We analyzed two methods: (a) Linear detrending of monthly GWS time series and (b) analysis of naturalized GWS computed by assuming no human water use. We found that linear detrending is unsuitable for global‐scale groundwater drought monitoring and forecasting as even small deviations from a pronounced linear trend can lead to a systematic over‐ and underestimation of the drought hazard. In contrast, indicators from naturalized GWS can identify climate‐induced GWS anomalies. We recommend to provide, in LDEWS, indicators of the magnitude, duration, and severity of groundwater drought that are based on monthly time series of model‐derived GWS simulated with (“ant” variant) and without water use (“nat” variant). In both GWD and non‐GWD regions, the “nat” variants inform about the occurrence of climate‐induced droughts. In GWD regions, they specify periods in which the negative GWS trend is either exacerbated or alleviated by climate‐induced variations of groundwater recharge, while “ant” variants are of very limited informative value. In non‐GWD regions, the joint analysis of “nat” and “ant” variants informs whether a climate‐induced drought is aggravated or alleviated due to human activities. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b7776150a5bf487cb9faa7dbd02b9c39 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0043-1397 1944-7973 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| spelling | doaj-art-b7776150a5bf487cb9faa7dbd02b9c392025-08-20T03:31:27ZengWileyWater Resources Research0043-13971944-79732025-06-01616n/an/a10.1029/2024WR038684Assessing Groundwater Drought Hazard in Groundwater Depletion Regions: Recommendations for Large‐Scale Drought Early Warning SystemsClaudia Herbert0Petra Döll1Institute of Physical Geography Goethe University Frankfurt Frankfurt GermanyInstitute of Physical Geography Goethe University Frankfurt Frankfurt GermanyAbstract In groundwater depletion (GWD) regions, negative trends in groundwater storage (GWS) are problematic for groundwater drought detection, since they mask climate‐induced drought signals. As this is not yet considered in any large‐scale drought early warning system (LDEWS), we used GWS from the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2e to investigate, for the first time at the global scale, how groundwater drought can best be quantified in GWD regions. We analyzed two methods: (a) Linear detrending of monthly GWS time series and (b) analysis of naturalized GWS computed by assuming no human water use. We found that linear detrending is unsuitable for global‐scale groundwater drought monitoring and forecasting as even small deviations from a pronounced linear trend can lead to a systematic over‐ and underestimation of the drought hazard. In contrast, indicators from naturalized GWS can identify climate‐induced GWS anomalies. We recommend to provide, in LDEWS, indicators of the magnitude, duration, and severity of groundwater drought that are based on monthly time series of model‐derived GWS simulated with (“ant” variant) and without water use (“nat” variant). In both GWD and non‐GWD regions, the “nat” variants inform about the occurrence of climate‐induced droughts. In GWD regions, they specify periods in which the negative GWS trend is either exacerbated or alleviated by climate‐induced variations of groundwater recharge, while “ant” variants are of very limited informative value. In non‐GWD regions, the joint analysis of “nat” and “ant” variants informs whether a climate‐induced drought is aggravated or alleviated due to human activities.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038684groundwater drought hazard indicatorsgroundwater depletiongroundwater storage trendsglobal hydrological modelingdrought early warning systemsWaterGAP |
| spellingShingle | Claudia Herbert Petra Döll Assessing Groundwater Drought Hazard in Groundwater Depletion Regions: Recommendations for Large‐Scale Drought Early Warning Systems Water Resources Research groundwater drought hazard indicators groundwater depletion groundwater storage trends global hydrological modeling drought early warning systems WaterGAP |
| title | Assessing Groundwater Drought Hazard in Groundwater Depletion Regions: Recommendations for Large‐Scale Drought Early Warning Systems |
| title_full | Assessing Groundwater Drought Hazard in Groundwater Depletion Regions: Recommendations for Large‐Scale Drought Early Warning Systems |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Groundwater Drought Hazard in Groundwater Depletion Regions: Recommendations for Large‐Scale Drought Early Warning Systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Groundwater Drought Hazard in Groundwater Depletion Regions: Recommendations for Large‐Scale Drought Early Warning Systems |
| title_short | Assessing Groundwater Drought Hazard in Groundwater Depletion Regions: Recommendations for Large‐Scale Drought Early Warning Systems |
| title_sort | assessing groundwater drought hazard in groundwater depletion regions recommendations for large scale drought early warning systems |
| topic | groundwater drought hazard indicators groundwater depletion groundwater storage trends global hydrological modeling drought early warning systems WaterGAP |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR038684 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT claudiaherbert assessinggroundwaterdroughthazardingroundwaterdepletionregionsrecommendationsforlargescaledroughtearlywarningsystems AT petradoll assessinggroundwaterdroughthazardingroundwaterdepletionregionsrecommendationsforlargescaledroughtearlywarningsystems |