Transmission Line Ice Disaster Early Warning Method Based on Ice Thickness Prediction Using GM(1, 6) Model
The operation of the electricity system faces the difficulty of minimizing ice damage to transmission lines. Due to the uncertainty of transmission line icing thickness, accurate prediction of icing thickness is very important to guide transmission line planning and power grid anti-icing design effe...
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| Format: | Article |
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IEEE
2024-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
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| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10086526/ |
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| author | Nailong Zhang Jie Chen Chao Gao Xiao Tan Yongqiang Wang |
| author_facet | Nailong Zhang Jie Chen Chao Gao Xiao Tan Yongqiang Wang |
| author_sort | Nailong Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The operation of the electricity system faces the difficulty of minimizing ice damage to transmission lines. Due to the uncertainty of transmission line icing thickness, accurate prediction of icing thickness is very important to guide transmission line planning and power grid anti-icing design effectively. Scientific and reasonable early warning assessment of conductor icing is also helpful to make timely and accurate response measures to the possible freezing disaster risk, so as to effectively ensure the safe and stable operation of power grid and reduce the occurrence of the freezing disaster. Based on this, this paper proposes a multi-factor prediction model based on GM (1, 6) grey theory, which considers the transmission line conductor icing model under the influence of multiple meteorological factors. Based on the conductor icing model, the conductor icing degree can be predicted in real time according to meteorological parameters, so as to realize the purpose of transmission line conductor icing disaster risk early warning. It is worth noting that the paper improves the traditional grey model by adding random data functions, which makes the model solve the problem of inaccurate prediction of small samples. Finally, a case study is carried out, and the icing disaster risk is divided into five levels. It is found that the maximal prediction error of icing thickness based on GM (1, 6) grey theory multi-factor prediction model is 10.06%(The average value is only 4.22%), and the accuracy of transmission line conductor icing disaster risk early warning is 88.9%. In addition, a certain safety margin value is added to the predicted value near the critical value of icing thickness, reducing the probability of judging the high-risk level as low-risk. Applying risk early warning method in ice areas can guide the anti-ice work of transmission line. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b727cd5bbade41c7abea4665cdc9244e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2169-3536 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IEEE Access |
| spelling | doaj-art-b727cd5bbade41c7abea4665cdc9244e2024-11-09T00:01:23ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362024-01-011216241216241910.1109/ACCESS.2023.326279410086526Transmission Line Ice Disaster Early Warning Method Based on Ice Thickness Prediction Using GM(1, 6) ModelNailong Zhang0Jie Chen1Chao Gao2Xiao Tan3Yongqiang Wang4https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4059-5967State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd., Research Institute, Nanjing, ChinaState Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd., Research Institute, Nanjing, ChinaState Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd., Nanjing, ChinaState Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd., Research Institute, Nanjing, ChinaNanjing Power Supply Branch, State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Ltd., Nanjing, ChinaThe operation of the electricity system faces the difficulty of minimizing ice damage to transmission lines. Due to the uncertainty of transmission line icing thickness, accurate prediction of icing thickness is very important to guide transmission line planning and power grid anti-icing design effectively. Scientific and reasonable early warning assessment of conductor icing is also helpful to make timely and accurate response measures to the possible freezing disaster risk, so as to effectively ensure the safe and stable operation of power grid and reduce the occurrence of the freezing disaster. Based on this, this paper proposes a multi-factor prediction model based on GM (1, 6) grey theory, which considers the transmission line conductor icing model under the influence of multiple meteorological factors. Based on the conductor icing model, the conductor icing degree can be predicted in real time according to meteorological parameters, so as to realize the purpose of transmission line conductor icing disaster risk early warning. It is worth noting that the paper improves the traditional grey model by adding random data functions, which makes the model solve the problem of inaccurate prediction of small samples. Finally, a case study is carried out, and the icing disaster risk is divided into five levels. It is found that the maximal prediction error of icing thickness based on GM (1, 6) grey theory multi-factor prediction model is 10.06%(The average value is only 4.22%), and the accuracy of transmission line conductor icing disaster risk early warning is 88.9%. In addition, a certain safety margin value is added to the predicted value near the critical value of icing thickness, reducing the probability of judging the high-risk level as low-risk. Applying risk early warning method in ice areas can guide the anti-ice work of transmission line.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10086526/Icing disastericing predictionfault early warningGM (1, 6) model |
| spellingShingle | Nailong Zhang Jie Chen Chao Gao Xiao Tan Yongqiang Wang Transmission Line Ice Disaster Early Warning Method Based on Ice Thickness Prediction Using GM(1, 6) Model IEEE Access Icing disaster icing prediction fault early warning GM (1, 6) model |
| title | Transmission Line Ice Disaster Early Warning Method Based on Ice Thickness Prediction Using GM(1, 6) Model |
| title_full | Transmission Line Ice Disaster Early Warning Method Based on Ice Thickness Prediction Using GM(1, 6) Model |
| title_fullStr | Transmission Line Ice Disaster Early Warning Method Based on Ice Thickness Prediction Using GM(1, 6) Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission Line Ice Disaster Early Warning Method Based on Ice Thickness Prediction Using GM(1, 6) Model |
| title_short | Transmission Line Ice Disaster Early Warning Method Based on Ice Thickness Prediction Using GM(1, 6) Model |
| title_sort | transmission line ice disaster early warning method based on ice thickness prediction using gm 1 6 model |
| topic | Icing disaster icing prediction fault early warning GM (1, 6) model |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10086526/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nailongzhang transmissionlineicedisasterearlywarningmethodbasedonicethicknesspredictionusinggm16model AT jiechen transmissionlineicedisasterearlywarningmethodbasedonicethicknesspredictionusinggm16model AT chaogao transmissionlineicedisasterearlywarningmethodbasedonicethicknesspredictionusinggm16model AT xiaotan transmissionlineicedisasterearlywarningmethodbasedonicethicknesspredictionusinggm16model AT yongqiangwang transmissionlineicedisasterearlywarningmethodbasedonicethicknesspredictionusinggm16model |