Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenarios

Drought represents one of the most devastating natural hazards, significantly impacting economies, societies, and the environment. Climate change is expected to alter future drought characteristics and may increase the severity of droughts. To mitigate these effects, it is essential to identify the...

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Main Author: Mohammad Reza Khazaei
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-01-01
Series:Heliyon
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025001914
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author Mohammad Reza Khazaei
author_facet Mohammad Reza Khazaei
author_sort Mohammad Reza Khazaei
collection DOAJ
description Drought represents one of the most devastating natural hazards, significantly impacting economies, societies, and the environment. Climate change is expected to alter future drought characteristics and may increase the severity of droughts. To mitigate these effects, it is essential to identify the characteristics of future droughts influenced by climate change using appropriate methods. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of droughts in Tehran, the capital of Iran, which has a high concentration of the country's population and industrial activities and is currently facing water stress. Using the Modified Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (M-LARS-WG), capable of reproducing inter-annual variability, future projections from four GCMs under four SSP-RCP scenarios from the latest CMIP6 were downscaled. The impacts of climate change on droughts were then assessed using the SPEI and SPI drought indices. The findings suggest that M-LARS-WG was capable of accurately reproducing historical drought characteristics and performed significantly better than LARS-WG. Based on the SPEI, the duration, magnitude, and frequency of future droughts are expected to increase significantly across nearly all GCM projections. Therefore, developing proactive drought risk frameworks and mitigation strategies is essential for reducing damages from future droughts.
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spelling doaj-art-b6dd04d677034c3b9ed822cdfe3d514c2025-02-02T05:28:16ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402025-01-01112e41811Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenariosMohammad Reza Khazaei0Department of Civil Engineering, Payame Noor University, Tehran, IranDrought represents one of the most devastating natural hazards, significantly impacting economies, societies, and the environment. Climate change is expected to alter future drought characteristics and may increase the severity of droughts. To mitigate these effects, it is essential to identify the characteristics of future droughts influenced by climate change using appropriate methods. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of droughts in Tehran, the capital of Iran, which has a high concentration of the country's population and industrial activities and is currently facing water stress. Using the Modified Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (M-LARS-WG), capable of reproducing inter-annual variability, future projections from four GCMs under four SSP-RCP scenarios from the latest CMIP6 were downscaled. The impacts of climate change on droughts were then assessed using the SPEI and SPI drought indices. The findings suggest that M-LARS-WG was capable of accurately reproducing historical drought characteristics and performed significantly better than LARS-WG. Based on the SPEI, the duration, magnitude, and frequency of future droughts are expected to increase significantly across nearly all GCM projections. Therefore, developing proactive drought risk frameworks and mitigation strategies is essential for reducing damages from future droughts.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025001914Climate changeDroughtSPISPEIM-LARS-WG
spellingShingle Mohammad Reza Khazaei
Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenarios
Heliyon
Climate change
Drought
SPI
SPEI
M-LARS-WG
title Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenarios
title_full Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenarios
title_fullStr Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenarios
title_short Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenarios
title_sort projected changes to drought characteristics in tehran under cmip6 ssp rcp climate change scenarios
topic Climate change
Drought
SPI
SPEI
M-LARS-WG
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844025001914
work_keys_str_mv AT mohammadrezakhazaei projectedchangestodroughtcharacteristicsintehranundercmip6ssprcpclimatechangescenarios