Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modeling
The ongoing trend of warming climate has made Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) a major cryospheric hazard worldwide, especially in the Himalayas. GLOFs in the Himalayan region are mostly caused by moraine-dammed proglacial lakes and ice-dammed lakes. These sporadic disasters have resulted in sig...
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2413893 |
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| author | Abid Farooq Rather Rayees Ahmed Joshal Kumar Bansal Rasiq Ahmad Mir Pervez Ahmed Ishfaq Hussain Malik Divyesh Varade |
| author_facet | Abid Farooq Rather Rayees Ahmed Joshal Kumar Bansal Rasiq Ahmad Mir Pervez Ahmed Ishfaq Hussain Malik Divyesh Varade |
| author_sort | Abid Farooq Rather |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The ongoing trend of warming climate has made Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) a major cryospheric hazard worldwide, especially in the Himalayas. GLOFs in the Himalayan region are mostly caused by moraine-dammed proglacial lakes and ice-dammed lakes. These sporadic disasters have resulted in significant loss of life and property. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the GLOF hazard potential of a potentially dangerous proglacial lake (PDGL) in the Ladakh region. This research explores the GLOF threat from the lake using multi-criteria analysis and advanced 2D hydrodynamic modeling approaches. The mass balance response of the mother glacier, its flow dynamics, and glacier-lake interactions were examined for the past 22 years. The findings show that over this period, the PDGL has had a notable expansion of 78.7%, accompanied by a significant recession of 13.2% in its feeding glacier. The glacier has witnessed an average thickness loss of ⁓7 m at the rate of 0.32 m a−1 during this period. The average, lowest, and maximum depth of the glacier were found to be 30.95, 14.30, and 50.57 m, respectively and the average velocity of the glacier was estimated as 3.38 m a−1. Because of the lake’s rapid expansion and steep surrounding slopes, it was classified as a high-hazard lake. The risk to the downstream community was assessed through 2D hydrodynamic modeling using the HEC-RAS tool. The maximum discharge under the worst-case scenario for the piping and overtopping failures was estimated as 3890.99 m3s−1 and 5111.39 m3s−1, respectively. The area potentially under the threat of inundation was calculated to be 4.74 and 5.38 km2 for the moderate and worst-case scenarios respectively. The expected maximum flood velocities range from 18.26 to 23.78 meters, respectively for the moderate and worst-case scenarios. At several locations in the downstream area, routed hydrographs representing the GLOF propagation were generated. The findings show that the flood wave in the worst-case scenario would arrive at the first settlement in 50 min, with a peak velocity of 12.36 m s−1. The potentially inundated area includes critical infrastructure such as bridges, residential houses, and roads. To mitigate the potential risk associated with this lake, a more detailed and on-site study is highly recommended. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b6cfa8bce0b445d48f3eee453f67f5e1 |
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| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-b6cfa8bce0b445d48f3eee453f67f5e12025-08-20T02:34:32ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132024-12-0115110.1080/19475705.2024.2413893Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modelingAbid Farooq Rather0Rayees Ahmed1Joshal Kumar Bansal2Rasiq Ahmad Mir3Pervez Ahmed4Ishfaq Hussain Malik5Divyesh Varade6Department of Geography and Disaster Management, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, IndiaDepartment of Geography and Disaster Management, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, IndiaCenter of Excellence in Disaster Mitigation and Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, IndiaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Jammu, Jammu, IndiaDepartment of Geography and Disaster Management, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, IndiaSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Jammu, Jammu, IndiaThe ongoing trend of warming climate has made Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) a major cryospheric hazard worldwide, especially in the Himalayas. GLOFs in the Himalayan region are mostly caused by moraine-dammed proglacial lakes and ice-dammed lakes. These sporadic disasters have resulted in significant loss of life and property. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the GLOF hazard potential of a potentially dangerous proglacial lake (PDGL) in the Ladakh region. This research explores the GLOF threat from the lake using multi-criteria analysis and advanced 2D hydrodynamic modeling approaches. The mass balance response of the mother glacier, its flow dynamics, and glacier-lake interactions were examined for the past 22 years. The findings show that over this period, the PDGL has had a notable expansion of 78.7%, accompanied by a significant recession of 13.2% in its feeding glacier. The glacier has witnessed an average thickness loss of ⁓7 m at the rate of 0.32 m a−1 during this period. The average, lowest, and maximum depth of the glacier were found to be 30.95, 14.30, and 50.57 m, respectively and the average velocity of the glacier was estimated as 3.38 m a−1. Because of the lake’s rapid expansion and steep surrounding slopes, it was classified as a high-hazard lake. The risk to the downstream community was assessed through 2D hydrodynamic modeling using the HEC-RAS tool. The maximum discharge under the worst-case scenario for the piping and overtopping failures was estimated as 3890.99 m3s−1 and 5111.39 m3s−1, respectively. The area potentially under the threat of inundation was calculated to be 4.74 and 5.38 km2 for the moderate and worst-case scenarios respectively. The expected maximum flood velocities range from 18.26 to 23.78 meters, respectively for the moderate and worst-case scenarios. At several locations in the downstream area, routed hydrographs representing the GLOF propagation were generated. The findings show that the flood wave in the worst-case scenario would arrive at the first settlement in 50 min, with a peak velocity of 12.36 m s−1. The potentially inundated area includes critical infrastructure such as bridges, residential houses, and roads. To mitigate the potential risk associated with this lake, a more detailed and on-site study is highly recommended.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2413893GLOFglacial lake expansionrisk assessmentHECRAS, Ladakh regionWestern HimalayasPanikhar, Kargil |
| spellingShingle | Abid Farooq Rather Rayees Ahmed Joshal Kumar Bansal Rasiq Ahmad Mir Pervez Ahmed Ishfaq Hussain Malik Divyesh Varade Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modeling Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk GLOF glacial lake expansion risk assessment HECRAS, Ladakh region Western Himalayas Panikhar, Kargil |
| title | Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modeling |
| title_full | Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modeling |
| title_fullStr | Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modeling |
| title_short | Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the Ladakh region of Western Himalaya, using hydrodynamic modeling |
| title_sort | glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of a rapidly expanding glacial lake in the ladakh region of western himalaya using hydrodynamic modeling |
| topic | GLOF glacial lake expansion risk assessment HECRAS, Ladakh region Western Himalayas Panikhar, Kargil |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2413893 |
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