Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study
Background: China is an aging society, and the older population is at a higher risk of influenza infection and influenza-related mortality. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the aging of influenza epidemics, which is crucial for estimating the disease burden. Methods: We collected weekly...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272500003X |
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| author | Weibo Tang Hao Lei Nan Zhang Yaojing Wang Shimeng Cai Shuyi Ji Lei Yang Mengya Yang Can Chen Shigui Yang Dayan Wang Yuelong Shu |
| author_facet | Weibo Tang Hao Lei Nan Zhang Yaojing Wang Shimeng Cai Shuyi Ji Lei Yang Mengya Yang Can Chen Shigui Yang Dayan Wang Yuelong Shu |
| author_sort | Weibo Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: China is an aging society, and the older population is at a higher risk of influenza infection and influenza-related mortality. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the aging of influenza epidemics, which is crucial for estimating the disease burden. Methods: We collected weekly influenza surveillance data from 2005/06 to 2016/17, and quantified the aging of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus-positive cases in China via the mean age of the influenza cases and the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above among the influenza cases. Results: On average, the mean age of ILI cases and influenza-positive cases increased by 0.52 years and 0.60 years per year, respectively, which is approximately three times the annual increase in the mean age of the population. Additionally, the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above among influenza-positive cases increased from 0.5% to 4.0%. The aging of patients infected with influenza B/Yamagata was the most rapid, with a mean age increase of 0.73 years per year, followed by those infected with influenza A (H1N1) and influenza A (H3N2). Conversely, there was no significant increase in the mean age of patients infected with influenza B/Victoria. The aging rate of influenza epidemics in southern China was significantly higher than in northern China. Conclusions: Based on estimates of excess mortality due to influenza from 2010/11 to 2014/15, by 2050, the annual number of respiratory disease-related deaths associated with influenza is projected to increase 2.5-fold. This finding highlights the importance of influenza vaccination among older individuals in China. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b6b90f8b35d2467486eea1d397a7bc80 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj-art-b6b90f8b35d2467486eea1d397a7bc802025-02-12T05:31:30ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272025-06-01102639648Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based studyWeibo Tang0Hao Lei1Nan Zhang2Yaojing Wang3Shimeng Cai4Shuyi Ji5Lei Yang6Mengya Yang7Can Chen8Shigui Yang9Dayan Wang10Yuelong Shu11School of Public Health, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PR ChinaSchool of Public Health, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PR China; Corresponding authors.Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, PR ChinaSchool of Economics, Peking University, Beijing, PR ChinaSchool of Public Health, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PR ChinaSchool of Public Health, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PR ChinaNational Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission, Beijing, 102206, PR ChinaSchool of Public Health, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PR ChinaSchool of Public Health, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PR ChinaSchool of Public Health, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PR China; Corresponding author.National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission, Beijing, 102206, PR China; Corresponding authors.Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control (MOE), State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, National Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 102629, PR China; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, PR China; Corresponding author. Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, PR China.Background: China is an aging society, and the older population is at a higher risk of influenza infection and influenza-related mortality. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the aging of influenza epidemics, which is crucial for estimating the disease burden. Methods: We collected weekly influenza surveillance data from 2005/06 to 2016/17, and quantified the aging of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus-positive cases in China via the mean age of the influenza cases and the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above among the influenza cases. Results: On average, the mean age of ILI cases and influenza-positive cases increased by 0.52 years and 0.60 years per year, respectively, which is approximately three times the annual increase in the mean age of the population. Additionally, the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above among influenza-positive cases increased from 0.5% to 4.0%. The aging of patients infected with influenza B/Yamagata was the most rapid, with a mean age increase of 0.73 years per year, followed by those infected with influenza A (H1N1) and influenza A (H3N2). Conversely, there was no significant increase in the mean age of patients infected with influenza B/Victoria. The aging rate of influenza epidemics in southern China was significantly higher than in northern China. Conclusions: Based on estimates of excess mortality due to influenza from 2010/11 to 2014/15, by 2050, the annual number of respiratory disease-related deaths associated with influenza is projected to increase 2.5-fold. This finding highlights the importance of influenza vaccination among older individuals in China.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272500003XAgingInfluenzaSurveillanceInfluenza-like illness |
| spellingShingle | Weibo Tang Hao Lei Nan Zhang Yaojing Wang Shimeng Cai Shuyi Ji Lei Yang Mengya Yang Can Chen Shigui Yang Dayan Wang Yuelong Shu Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study Infectious Disease Modelling Aging Influenza Surveillance Influenza-like illness |
| title | Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study |
| title_full | Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study |
| title_fullStr | Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study |
| title_short | Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study |
| title_sort | rapid aging of influenza epidemics in china from 2005 06 to 2016 17 a population based study |
| topic | Aging Influenza Surveillance Influenza-like illness |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272500003X |
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