Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency
The uncertainty associated with the future of viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 poses a challenge to public health officials because of its implications for welfare, economics and population health. In this document, we develop an age-stratified epidemiological-mathematical model to predict various health...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-11-01
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024157568 |
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| author | Oscar Espinosa Lisa White Valeria Bejarano Ricardo Aguas Duván Rincón Laura Mora Antonio Ramos Cristian Sanabria Jhonathan Rodríguez Nicolás Barrera Carlos Álvarez-Moreno Jorge Cortés Carlos Saavedra Adriana Robayo Bo Gao Oscar Franco |
| author_facet | Oscar Espinosa Lisa White Valeria Bejarano Ricardo Aguas Duván Rincón Laura Mora Antonio Ramos Cristian Sanabria Jhonathan Rodríguez Nicolás Barrera Carlos Álvarez-Moreno Jorge Cortés Carlos Saavedra Adriana Robayo Bo Gao Oscar Franco |
| author_sort | Oscar Espinosa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The uncertainty associated with the future of viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 poses a challenge to public health officials because of its implications for welfare, economics and population health. In this document, we develop an age-stratified epidemiological-mathematical model to predict various health outcomes, considering the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The analytical model proposed and developed for this research is based on the approach constructed by the COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium. Following this approach, this paper innovates at the frontier of knowledge by including the various variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the Consortium model. Furthermore, for the first time in international literature, a complete compilation of the formal mathematical development of this entire quantitative model is presented. Our model accurately fits the observed historical data of new infections, cumulative mortality, symptomatic infections, hospitalisations, and Intensive Care Units admissions, capturing the waves of contagion that have occurred in Bogotá, Colombia. In turn, the prognosis obtained indicates a considerable decrease in the incidence and lethality caused by SARS-CoV-2 under current conditions, thus evidencing the effectiveness of vaccines against infection, hospitalisation, and death. This model enables the evaluation of different scenarios in response to changes in the dynamics of this infectious disease, providing information to policymakers for real-world evidence-based decision-making. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b68bcdc4006b48be9f0878fd2dad957f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj-art-b68bcdc4006b48be9f0878fd2dad957f2024-11-15T06:13:21ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402024-11-011021e39725Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiencyOscar Espinosa0Lisa White1Valeria Bejarano2Ricardo Aguas3Duván Rincón4Laura Mora5Antonio Ramos6Cristian Sanabria7Jhonathan Rodríguez8Nicolás Barrera9Carlos Álvarez-Moreno10Jorge Cortés11Carlos Saavedra12Adriana Robayo13Bo Gao14Oscar Franco15Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Corresponding author. Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia.Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomEconomic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomDirectorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaDirectorate of Synthesis and Technology Management, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaEconomic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaDirectorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaEconomic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaDirectorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaFaculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaFaculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaFaculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaExecutive Directorate, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., ColombiaNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomUniversity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, USAThe uncertainty associated with the future of viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 poses a challenge to public health officials because of its implications for welfare, economics and population health. In this document, we develop an age-stratified epidemiological-mathematical model to predict various health outcomes, considering the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The analytical model proposed and developed for this research is based on the approach constructed by the COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium. Following this approach, this paper innovates at the frontier of knowledge by including the various variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the Consortium model. Furthermore, for the first time in international literature, a complete compilation of the formal mathematical development of this entire quantitative model is presented. Our model accurately fits the observed historical data of new infections, cumulative mortality, symptomatic infections, hospitalisations, and Intensive Care Units admissions, capturing the waves of contagion that have occurred in Bogotá, Colombia. In turn, the prognosis obtained indicates a considerable decrease in the incidence and lethality caused by SARS-CoV-2 under current conditions, thus evidencing the effectiveness of vaccines against infection, hospitalisation, and death. This model enables the evaluation of different scenarios in response to changes in the dynamics of this infectious disease, providing information to policymakers for real-world evidence-based decision-making.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024157568Real-world evidenceEffectivenessVaccinesCOVID-19Public healthPredictive modelling |
| spellingShingle | Oscar Espinosa Lisa White Valeria Bejarano Ricardo Aguas Duván Rincón Laura Mora Antonio Ramos Cristian Sanabria Jhonathan Rodríguez Nicolás Barrera Carlos Álvarez-Moreno Jorge Cortés Carlos Saavedra Adriana Robayo Bo Gao Oscar Franco Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency Heliyon Real-world evidence Effectiveness Vaccines COVID-19 Public health Predictive modelling |
| title | Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency |
| title_full | Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency |
| title_fullStr | Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency |
| title_short | Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency |
| title_sort | predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against covid 19 in bogota methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency |
| topic | Real-world evidence Effectiveness Vaccines COVID-19 Public health Predictive modelling |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024157568 |
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