Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis
The 2001–02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay’s economy. Uruguay’s gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent, and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in only two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its precrisis level. T...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Warsaw
2015-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Banking and Financial Economics |
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| Online Access: | https://press.wz.uw.edu.pl/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1087&context=jbfe |
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| author | Oscar Barriga Cabanillas María Ana Lugo Hannah Nielsen Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán María Pía Zanetti |
| author_facet | Oscar Barriga Cabanillas María Ana Lugo Hannah Nielsen Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán María Pía Zanetti |
| author_sort | Oscar Barriga Cabanillas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The 2001–02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay’s economy. Uruguay’s gross
domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent, and the proportion of people living below the poverty
line doubled in only two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its
precrisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of
a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay
would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be
considerably more moderate; inequality would not change significantly; and household incomes
would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower among households
in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). The paper also explores the changes in social
welfare policy that took place in the last decade that are protecting vulnerable groups from new
macroeconomic shocks. We find that, despite the new policies, young individuals, woman-headed
households, residents of Montevideo, and people who have not completed secondary education
are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b64eabd441964f8ba6faec88b4718d22 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2353-6845 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-08-01 |
| publisher | University of Warsaw |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Banking and Financial Economics |
| spelling | doaj-art-b64eabd441964f8ba6faec88b4718d222025-01-02T23:18:05ZengUniversity of WarsawJournal of Banking and Financial Economics2353-68452015-08-0120152(4)649010.7172/2353-6845.jbfe.2015.2.5Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine CrisisOscar Barriga Cabanillas0María Ana Lugo1Hannah Nielsen2Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán3María Pía Zanetti4University of California, Davis. USAWorld Bank. USAWorld Bank, USAWorld Bank. USAWorld Bank. USAThe 2001–02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay’s economy. Uruguay’s gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent, and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in only two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its precrisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably more moderate; inequality would not change significantly; and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower among households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). The paper also explores the changes in social welfare policy that took place in the last decade that are protecting vulnerable groups from new macroeconomic shocks. We find that, despite the new policies, young individuals, woman-headed households, residents of Montevideo, and people who have not completed secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike.https://press.wz.uw.edu.pl/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1087&context=jbfebusiness cyclesmicrosimulationsdistributional analysisuruguay |
| spellingShingle | Oscar Barriga Cabanillas María Ana Lugo Hannah Nielsen Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán María Pía Zanetti Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis Journal of Banking and Financial Economics business cycles microsimulations distributional analysis uruguay |
| title | Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis |
| title_full | Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis |
| title_fullStr | Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis |
| title_short | Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001–02 Argentine Crisis |
| title_sort | is uruguay more resilient this time distributional impacts of a crisis similar to the 2001 02 argentine crisis |
| topic | business cycles microsimulations distributional analysis uruguay |
| url | https://press.wz.uw.edu.pl/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1087&context=jbfe |
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