Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change

IntroductionMagnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Lim...

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Main Authors: Wenqian Zhang, Xinshuai Wang, Shouyun Shen, Yanghui Zhao, Siwen Hao, Jinghuan Jiang, Donglin Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2024-10-01
Series:Frontiers in Plant Science
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1440610/full
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author Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Xinshuai Wang
Shouyun Shen
Shouyun Shen
Shouyun Shen
Yanghui Zhao
Yanghui Zhao
Yanghui Zhao
Siwen Hao
Siwen Hao
Siwen Hao
Jinghuan Jiang
Jinghuan Jiang
Jinghuan Jiang
Donglin Zhang
Donglin Zhang
Donglin Zhang
author_facet Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Xinshuai Wang
Shouyun Shen
Shouyun Shen
Shouyun Shen
Yanghui Zhao
Yanghui Zhao
Yanghui Zhao
Siwen Hao
Siwen Hao
Siwen Hao
Jinghuan Jiang
Jinghuan Jiang
Jinghuan Jiang
Donglin Zhang
Donglin Zhang
Donglin Zhang
author_sort Wenqian Zhang
collection DOAJ
description IntroductionMagnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China.MethodsWe selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R.ResultsThe ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions.DiscussionOur study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora.
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spelling doaj-art-b637df7c765b496ebdc7610176d2f6162025-08-20T02:08:42ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2024-10-011510.3389/fpls.2024.14406101440610Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate changeWenqian Zhang0Wenqian Zhang1Wenqian Zhang2Wenqian Zhang3Xinshuai Wang4Shouyun Shen5Shouyun Shen6Shouyun Shen7Yanghui Zhao8Yanghui Zhao9Yanghui Zhao10Siwen Hao11Siwen Hao12Siwen Hao13Jinghuan Jiang14Jinghuan Jiang15Jinghuan Jiang16Donglin Zhang17Donglin Zhang18Donglin Zhang19College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, Changsha University, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaChinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaDepartment of Horticulture, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United StatesIntroductionMagnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China.MethodsWe selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R.ResultsThe ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions.DiscussionOur study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1440610/fullbiomod2introduced speciesniche shiftspotential geographic distributionsouthern magnolia
spellingShingle Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Wenqian Zhang
Xinshuai Wang
Shouyun Shen
Shouyun Shen
Shouyun Shen
Yanghui Zhao
Yanghui Zhao
Yanghui Zhao
Siwen Hao
Siwen Hao
Siwen Hao
Jinghuan Jiang
Jinghuan Jiang
Jinghuan Jiang
Donglin Zhang
Donglin Zhang
Donglin Zhang
Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change
Frontiers in Plant Science
biomod2
introduced species
niche shifts
potential geographic distribution
southern magnolia
title Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change
title_full Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change
title_fullStr Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change
title_full_unstemmed Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change
title_short Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change
title_sort analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of magnolia grandiflora l in the united states and china in response to climate change
topic biomod2
introduced species
niche shifts
potential geographic distribution
southern magnolia
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1440610/full
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