Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change
IntroductionMagnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Lim...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Plant Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1440610/full |
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| author | Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Xinshuai Wang Shouyun Shen Shouyun Shen Shouyun Shen Yanghui Zhao Yanghui Zhao Yanghui Zhao Siwen Hao Siwen Hao Siwen Hao Jinghuan Jiang Jinghuan Jiang Jinghuan Jiang Donglin Zhang Donglin Zhang Donglin Zhang |
| author_facet | Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Xinshuai Wang Shouyun Shen Shouyun Shen Shouyun Shen Yanghui Zhao Yanghui Zhao Yanghui Zhao Siwen Hao Siwen Hao Siwen Hao Jinghuan Jiang Jinghuan Jiang Jinghuan Jiang Donglin Zhang Donglin Zhang Donglin Zhang |
| author_sort | Wenqian Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | IntroductionMagnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China.MethodsWe selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R.ResultsThe ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions.DiscussionOur study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b637df7c765b496ebdc7610176d2f616 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1664-462X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-b637df7c765b496ebdc7610176d2f6162025-08-20T02:08:42ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2024-10-011510.3389/fpls.2024.14406101440610Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate changeWenqian Zhang0Wenqian Zhang1Wenqian Zhang2Wenqian Zhang3Xinshuai Wang4Shouyun Shen5Shouyun Shen6Shouyun Shen7Yanghui Zhao8Yanghui Zhao9Yanghui Zhao10Siwen Hao11Siwen Hao12Siwen Hao13Jinghuan Jiang14Jinghuan Jiang15Jinghuan Jiang16Donglin Zhang17Donglin Zhang18Donglin Zhang19College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, Changsha University, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaChinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaYuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaHunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources, Changsha, Hunan, ChinaDepartment of Horticulture, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United StatesIntroductionMagnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China.MethodsWe selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R.ResultsThe ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions.DiscussionOur study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1440610/fullbiomod2introduced speciesniche shiftspotential geographic distributionsouthern magnolia |
| spellingShingle | Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Wenqian Zhang Xinshuai Wang Shouyun Shen Shouyun Shen Shouyun Shen Yanghui Zhao Yanghui Zhao Yanghui Zhao Siwen Hao Siwen Hao Siwen Hao Jinghuan Jiang Jinghuan Jiang Jinghuan Jiang Donglin Zhang Donglin Zhang Donglin Zhang Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change Frontiers in Plant Science biomod2 introduced species niche shifts potential geographic distribution southern magnolia |
| title | Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change |
| title_full | Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change |
| title_fullStr | Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change |
| title_short | Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change |
| title_sort | analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of magnolia grandiflora l in the united states and china in response to climate change |
| topic | biomod2 introduced species niche shifts potential geographic distribution southern magnolia |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1440610/full |
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