Modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series models
<b>Aim:</b> Eating habits have changed in India and this change has also affected protein consumption habits. The change in eating habits of egg products is an indication of this. Considering the population growth rate and the resulting increase in egg demand, the countries should increa...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Selcuk University Press
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1373 |
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| author | Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib Harun Yonar Mostafa Abotaleb Pradeep Mishra Aynur Yonar Kadir Karakaya Amr Badr Vinti Dhaka |
| author_facet | Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib Harun Yonar Mostafa Abotaleb Pradeep Mishra Aynur Yonar Kadir Karakaya Amr Badr Vinti Dhaka |
| author_sort | Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <b>Aim:</b> Eating habits have changed in India and this change has also affected
protein consumption habits. The change in eating habits of egg products is
an indication of this. Considering the population growth rate and the resulting
increase in egg demand, the countries should increase their production
of protein poultry products. Aim of the study was to obtain results for both
policymakers and suppliers to develop strategies with the forecast of egg consumption.<p>
<b>Materials and Methods:</b> In this study, the production of Eggs in India is considered
and forecasts are made by the several time series model such as the
ARIMA, BATS, TBATS, and Holt'slinear trend. The testing data for the production
of the egg is considered from 2015-2019.<p>
<b>Results: </b>It is detected that Holt's Linear Trend Model is the best fit model
for forecasting. The MAPE values are obtained as 2.137%, 5.378%, 4.681%,
and 1.392% by the best-fitted models BATS, TBATS, ARIMA (1,2,2), and Holt?s
Linear Trend respectively. According to Holt?s linear trend Model, the Eggs
production continues its upward trend in India. The Eggs production in India
would be increased from 111350.3 to 148696.9 during the period 2019-2020
to 2023-2024.<p>
<b>Conclusion:</b> This study might help policymakers in the Livestock sector to under
standard making strategies for the future to invest in it. Furthermore, it is
important to make a strategic plan for eggs export, eggs supply, eggs demand,
and eggs prices by the Indian government. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b5fb2fb063ce4f218a23d5191e1cf0fd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1309-6958 2146-1953 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Selcuk University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-b5fb2fb063ce4f218a23d5191e1cf0fd2025-01-02T22:35:53ZengSelcuk University PressEurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences1309-69582146-19532021-12-013742652731373Modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series modelsAbdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib0Harun Yonar1Mostafa Abotaleb2Pradeep MishraAynur Yonar3Kadir Karakaya4Amr Badr5Vinti Dhaka6Damascus University, Faculty of Economics, Department of Banking and Insurance, SyriaSelcuk University, Veterinary Faculty, Department of Biostatistics, Konya, TurkeySouth Ural State University, Department of System Programming, Chelyabinsk, Russia 4Selcuk University, Science Faculty, Department of Statistics, Konya, TurkeySelcuk University, Science Faculty, Department of Statistics, Konya, TurkeyNew England University, Science Faculty, School of Science and Technology, Armidale, NSW, AustraliaOM Sterling Global University, Department of Mathematics, School of Applied Sciences, Hisar, Haryana<b>Aim:</b> Eating habits have changed in India and this change has also affected protein consumption habits. The change in eating habits of egg products is an indication of this. Considering the population growth rate and the resulting increase in egg demand, the countries should increase their production of protein poultry products. Aim of the study was to obtain results for both policymakers and suppliers to develop strategies with the forecast of egg consumption.<p> <b>Materials and Methods:</b> In this study, the production of Eggs in India is considered and forecasts are made by the several time series model such as the ARIMA, BATS, TBATS, and Holt'slinear trend. The testing data for the production of the egg is considered from 2015-2019.<p> <b>Results: </b>It is detected that Holt's Linear Trend Model is the best fit model for forecasting. The MAPE values are obtained as 2.137%, 5.378%, 4.681%, and 1.392% by the best-fitted models BATS, TBATS, ARIMA (1,2,2), and Holt?s Linear Trend respectively. According to Holt?s linear trend Model, the Eggs production continues its upward trend in India. The Eggs production in India would be increased from 111350.3 to 148696.9 during the period 2019-2020 to 2023-2024.<p> <b>Conclusion:</b> This study might help policymakers in the Livestock sector to under standard making strategies for the future to invest in it. Furthermore, it is important to make a strategic plan for eggs export, eggs supply, eggs demand, and eggs prices by the Indian government.http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1373batstbatsarimaholt?s linear trend methodforecasting |
| spellingShingle | Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib Harun Yonar Mostafa Abotaleb Pradeep Mishra Aynur Yonar Kadir Karakaya Amr Badr Vinti Dhaka Modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series models Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences bats tbats arima holt?s linear trend method forecasting |
| title | Modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series models |
| title_full | Modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series models |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series models |
| title_short | Modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series models |
| title_sort | modeling and forecasting of egg production in india using time series models |
| topic | bats tbats arima holt?s linear trend method forecasting |
| url | http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1373 |
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