Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes
This paper presents a proof of concept for a new analogue-based framework for the detection and attribution of hurricane-related hazards. This framework addresses two important limitations of existing analogue-based methodologies: the lack of observed similar events, and the unsuitability of the dis...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8d |
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| author | Stella Bourdin Suzana J Camargo Chia-Ying Lee Jonathan Lin Mathieu Vrac Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar Davide Faranda |
| author_facet | Stella Bourdin Suzana J Camargo Chia-Ying Lee Jonathan Lin Mathieu Vrac Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar Davide Faranda |
| author_sort | Stella Bourdin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents a proof of concept for a new analogue-based framework for the detection and attribution of hurricane-related hazards. This framework addresses two important limitations of existing analogue-based methodologies: the lack of observed similar events, and the unsuitability of the distance metrics for hurricanes. To do so, we use a track-based metric, and we make use of synthetic tracks catalogues. We show that our method allows for selecting a sufficient number of suitable analogues, and we apply it to nine hurricane cases. Our analysis does not reveal any robust changes in wind hazards, translation speed, seasonality, or frequency over recent decades, consistent with current literature. This framework provides a reliable alternative to traditional analogue-based methods in the case of hurricanes, complementing and potentially enhancing efforts in addressing extreme weather event attribution. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b5eb56b283b44412b7e08b8e44f64afd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-b5eb56b283b44412b7e08b8e44f64afd2025-01-30T16:17:35ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120202404210.1088/1748-9326/adaa8dImproving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanesStella Bourdin0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2635-5654Suzana J Camargo1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0802-5160Chia-Ying Lee2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1644-375XJonathan Lin3Mathieu Vrac4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6176-0439Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8085-9621Davide Faranda6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5001-5698Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford , Oxford, United KingdomLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University , Palisades, NY, United States of AmericaLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University , Palisades, NY, United States of AmericaDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University , Ithaca, NY, United States of AmericaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Université Paris-Saclay & IPSL , UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Université Paris-Saclay & IPSL , UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Université Paris-Saclay & IPSL , UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; London Mathematical Laboratory , 8 Margravine Gardens, London W6 8RH, United Kingdom; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université , École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, Paris, FranceThis paper presents a proof of concept for a new analogue-based framework for the detection and attribution of hurricane-related hazards. This framework addresses two important limitations of existing analogue-based methodologies: the lack of observed similar events, and the unsuitability of the distance metrics for hurricanes. To do so, we use a track-based metric, and we make use of synthetic tracks catalogues. We show that our method allows for selecting a sufficient number of suitable analogues, and we apply it to nine hurricane cases. Our analysis does not reveal any robust changes in wind hazards, translation speed, seasonality, or frequency over recent decades, consistent with current literature. This framework provides a reliable alternative to traditional analogue-based methods in the case of hurricanes, complementing and potentially enhancing efforts in addressing extreme weather event attribution.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8dhurricaneattributionextreme eventstropical cyclonesynthetic tracks |
| spellingShingle | Stella Bourdin Suzana J Camargo Chia-Ying Lee Jonathan Lin Mathieu Vrac Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar Davide Faranda Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes Environmental Research Letters hurricane attribution extreme events tropical cyclone synthetic tracks |
| title | Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes |
| title_full | Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes |
| title_fullStr | Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes |
| title_short | Improving analogues-based detection & attribution approaches for hurricanes |
| title_sort | improving analogues based detection attribution approaches for hurricanes |
| topic | hurricane attribution extreme events tropical cyclone synthetic tracks |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8d |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT stellabourdin improvinganaloguesbaseddetectionattributionapproachesforhurricanes AT suzanajcamargo improvinganaloguesbaseddetectionattributionapproachesforhurricanes AT chiayinglee improvinganaloguesbaseddetectionattributionapproachesforhurricanes AT jonathanlin improvinganaloguesbaseddetectionattributionapproachesforhurricanes AT mathieuvrac improvinganaloguesbaseddetectionattributionapproachesforhurricanes AT pradeebanevaittinadaayar improvinganaloguesbaseddetectionattributionapproachesforhurricanes AT davidefaranda improvinganaloguesbaseddetectionattributionapproachesforhurricanes |