Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission
A single-staged (SS) model and a staged progression (SP) model for HIV/AIDS with the same variable contact rate over time were formulated. In both models, analytical expressions for the HIV prevalence were obtained. A comparison of the two models was undertaken. It is shown that prevalence projectio...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2007-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2007/18908 |
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| author | F. Baryarama J. Y. T. Mugisha |
| author_facet | F. Baryarama J. Y. T. Mugisha |
| author_sort | F. Baryarama |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A single-staged (SS) model and a staged progression (SP) model for HIV/AIDS
with the same variable contact rate over time were formulated. In both models, analytical expressions for the HIV prevalence were obtained. A comparison of the two models was undertaken. It is shown that prevalence projections from the SS model are lower than projections from the SP model up to and beyond the peak prevalence, although the SS model prevalence may be higher than that of the SP model much later in the epidemic. A switch from faster SP model prevalence changes to faster SS prevalence changes occurs beyond the SP model peak prevalence. Hence using the SS model underestimates HIV prevalence in the early stages of the epidemic but may overestimate prevalence in the declining HIV prevalence phase. Our comparison suggests that the SP model provides better prevalence projections than the SS model. Moreover, the extra parameters that
would make the SP model appear difficult to implement may not be sought from national survey data but from existing HIV/AIDS literature. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b5e42904b5c64f11b5f025a04608f174 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0161-1712 1687-0425 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2007-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-b5e42904b5c64f11b5f025a04608f1742025-02-03T01:31:51ZengWileyInternational Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences0161-17121687-04252007-01-01200710.1155/2007/1890818908Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS TransmissionF. Baryarama0J. Y. T. Mugisha1Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, UgandaDepartment of Mathematics, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, UgandaA single-staged (SS) model and a staged progression (SP) model for HIV/AIDS with the same variable contact rate over time were formulated. In both models, analytical expressions for the HIV prevalence were obtained. A comparison of the two models was undertaken. It is shown that prevalence projections from the SS model are lower than projections from the SP model up to and beyond the peak prevalence, although the SS model prevalence may be higher than that of the SP model much later in the epidemic. A switch from faster SP model prevalence changes to faster SS prevalence changes occurs beyond the SP model peak prevalence. Hence using the SS model underestimates HIV prevalence in the early stages of the epidemic but may overestimate prevalence in the declining HIV prevalence phase. Our comparison suggests that the SP model provides better prevalence projections than the SS model. Moreover, the extra parameters that would make the SP model appear difficult to implement may not be sought from national survey data but from existing HIV/AIDS literature.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2007/18908 |
| spellingShingle | F. Baryarama J. Y. T. Mugisha Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| title | Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission |
| title_full | Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission |
| title_fullStr | Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission |
| title_short | Comparison of Single-Stage and Staged Progression Models for HIV/AIDS Transmission |
| title_sort | comparison of single stage and staged progression models for hiv aids transmission |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2007/18908 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fbaryarama comparisonofsinglestageandstagedprogressionmodelsforhivaidstransmission AT jytmugisha comparisonofsinglestageandstagedprogressionmodelsforhivaidstransmission |