Global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage

Abstract Objective This study provides an analysis of the global burden of Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Articular Cartilage (MNBAC) from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2030. Methods Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we assessed trends in Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Art...

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Main Authors: Jialiu Fang, Xiaoyue Zhang, Rui Zhu, Xing Xing, Ziyuan Shen, Jisen Zhang, Guoqi Cai
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer 2025-03-01
Series:Discover Public Health
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00491-z
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author Jialiu Fang
Xiaoyue Zhang
Rui Zhu
Xing Xing
Ziyuan Shen
Jisen Zhang
Guoqi Cai
author_facet Jialiu Fang
Xiaoyue Zhang
Rui Zhu
Xing Xing
Ziyuan Shen
Jisen Zhang
Guoqi Cai
author_sort Jialiu Fang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Objective This study provides an analysis of the global burden of Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Articular Cartilage (MNBAC) from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2030. Methods Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we assessed trends in Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Articular Cartilage (MNBAC) across 204 countries, analyzing age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), along with their changes through estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). We employed decomposition analysis to explore how population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts impact MNBAC’s burden. Additionally, we used the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to forecast future MNBAC trends. Results In 2021, there were 91.38 thousand new cases of MNBAC, bringing the total number of prevalent cases worldwide to 598.64 thousand. The global burden of MNBAC increased significantly, with notable disparities across genders and regions. The EAPCs for all metrics were notably high in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central Latin America. Males consistently presented higher incidence and prevalence rates than females, particularly among adolescents and the elderly. The EAPCs for all metrics were negatively correlated with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), the Human Development Index (HDI), and the Universal Health Coverage Index (UHCI). The BAPC prediction model forecasted that the global burden of MNBAC is expected to decrease by 2030. Conclusion MNBAC's significant global impact calls for targeted public health interventions tailored to the hardest-hit regions and demographic groups. Addressing socio-economic and demographic factors is essential for effective prevention and treatment strategies.
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spelling doaj-art-b5dfa9b58b8f4021b268986640189edc2025-08-20T02:16:56ZengSpringerDiscover Public Health3005-07742025-03-0122111310.1186/s12982-025-00491-zGlobal trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilageJialiu Fang0Xiaoyue Zhang1Rui Zhu2Xing Xing3Ziyuan Shen4Jisen Zhang5Guoqi Cai6Department of Orthopedics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of Anesthesiology, Hefei Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Anhui Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Hefei Fifth People’s Hospital, Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of Orthopedics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical UniversityAbstract Objective This study provides an analysis of the global burden of Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Articular Cartilage (MNBAC) from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2030. Methods Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we assessed trends in Malignant Neoplasm of Bone and Articular Cartilage (MNBAC) across 204 countries, analyzing age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), along with their changes through estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). We employed decomposition analysis to explore how population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts impact MNBAC’s burden. Additionally, we used the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to forecast future MNBAC trends. Results In 2021, there were 91.38 thousand new cases of MNBAC, bringing the total number of prevalent cases worldwide to 598.64 thousand. The global burden of MNBAC increased significantly, with notable disparities across genders and regions. The EAPCs for all metrics were notably high in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central Latin America. Males consistently presented higher incidence and prevalence rates than females, particularly among adolescents and the elderly. The EAPCs for all metrics were negatively correlated with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), the Human Development Index (HDI), and the Universal Health Coverage Index (UHCI). The BAPC prediction model forecasted that the global burden of MNBAC is expected to decrease by 2030. Conclusion MNBAC's significant global impact calls for targeted public health interventions tailored to the hardest-hit regions and demographic groups. Addressing socio-economic and demographic factors is essential for effective prevention and treatment strategies.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00491-zAge-standardized ratesEstimated annual percentage changeMalignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilageProjection
spellingShingle Jialiu Fang
Xiaoyue Zhang
Rui Zhu
Xing Xing
Ziyuan Shen
Jisen Zhang
Guoqi Cai
Global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
Discover Public Health
Age-standardized rates
Estimated annual percentage change
Malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
Projection
title Global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
title_full Global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
title_fullStr Global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
title_full_unstemmed Global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
title_short Global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
title_sort global trends and projections in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
topic Age-standardized rates
Estimated annual percentage change
Malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage
Projection
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00491-z
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