Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Models for Accurate Prediction of Carbonation-Induced Steel Corrosion in Cementitious Mortars

Steel corrosion prediction in concrete infrastructure remains a critical challenge for durability assessment and maintenance planning. This study presents a comprehensive framework integrating domain expertise with advanced machine learning for carbonation-induced corrosion prediction. Four Gaussian...

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Main Author: Teerapun Saeheaw
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Buildings
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/14/2464
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author Teerapun Saeheaw
author_facet Teerapun Saeheaw
author_sort Teerapun Saeheaw
collection DOAJ
description Steel corrosion prediction in concrete infrastructure remains a critical challenge for durability assessment and maintenance planning. This study presents a comprehensive framework integrating domain expertise with advanced machine learning for carbonation-induced corrosion prediction. Four Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) variants were systematically developed: Baseline GPR with manual optimization, Expert Knowledge GPR employing domain-driven dual-kernel architecture, GPR with Automatic Relevance Determination (GPR-ARD) for feature selection, and GPR-OptCorrosion featuring specialized multi-component composite kernels. The models were trained and validated using 180 carbonated mortar specimens with 15 systematically categorized variables spanning mixture, material, environmental, and electrochemical parameters. GPR-OptCorrosion achieved superior performance (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.9820, RMSE = 1.3311 μA/cm<sup>2</sup>), representing 44.7% relative improvement in explained variance over baseline methods, while Expert Knowledge GPR and GPR-ARD demonstrated comparable performance (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.9636 and 0.9810, respectively). Contrary to conventional approaches emphasizing electrochemical indicators, automatic relevance determination revealed supplementary cementitious materials (silica fume and fly ash) as dominant predictive factors. All advanced models exhibited excellent generalization (gaps < 0.02) and real-time efficiency (<0.006 s), with probabilistic uncertainty quantification enabling risk-informed infrastructure management. This research contributes to advancing machine learning applications in corrosion engineering and provides a foundation for predictive maintenance strategies in concrete infrastructure.
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spelling doaj-art-b5d029344ada473f940addf04de069b22025-08-20T02:45:34ZengMDPI AGBuildings2075-53092025-07-011514246410.3390/buildings15142464Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Models for Accurate Prediction of Carbonation-Induced Steel Corrosion in Cementitious MortarsTeerapun Saeheaw0Department of Teacher Training in Mechanical Engineering, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok 10800, ThailandSteel corrosion prediction in concrete infrastructure remains a critical challenge for durability assessment and maintenance planning. This study presents a comprehensive framework integrating domain expertise with advanced machine learning for carbonation-induced corrosion prediction. Four Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) variants were systematically developed: Baseline GPR with manual optimization, Expert Knowledge GPR employing domain-driven dual-kernel architecture, GPR with Automatic Relevance Determination (GPR-ARD) for feature selection, and GPR-OptCorrosion featuring specialized multi-component composite kernels. The models were trained and validated using 180 carbonated mortar specimens with 15 systematically categorized variables spanning mixture, material, environmental, and electrochemical parameters. GPR-OptCorrosion achieved superior performance (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.9820, RMSE = 1.3311 μA/cm<sup>2</sup>), representing 44.7% relative improvement in explained variance over baseline methods, while Expert Knowledge GPR and GPR-ARD demonstrated comparable performance (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.9636 and 0.9810, respectively). Contrary to conventional approaches emphasizing electrochemical indicators, automatic relevance determination revealed supplementary cementitious materials (silica fume and fly ash) as dominant predictive factors. All advanced models exhibited excellent generalization (gaps < 0.02) and real-time efficiency (<0.006 s), with probabilistic uncertainty quantification enabling risk-informed infrastructure management. This research contributes to advancing machine learning applications in corrosion engineering and provides a foundation for predictive maintenance strategies in concrete infrastructure.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/14/2464Gaussian Process Regressioncorrosion predictioncarbonationconcrete durabilitymachine learningkernel design
spellingShingle Teerapun Saeheaw
Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Models for Accurate Prediction of Carbonation-Induced Steel Corrosion in Cementitious Mortars
Buildings
Gaussian Process Regression
corrosion prediction
carbonation
concrete durability
machine learning
kernel design
title Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Models for Accurate Prediction of Carbonation-Induced Steel Corrosion in Cementitious Mortars
title_full Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Models for Accurate Prediction of Carbonation-Induced Steel Corrosion in Cementitious Mortars
title_fullStr Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Models for Accurate Prediction of Carbonation-Induced Steel Corrosion in Cementitious Mortars
title_full_unstemmed Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Models for Accurate Prediction of Carbonation-Induced Steel Corrosion in Cementitious Mortars
title_short Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Models for Accurate Prediction of Carbonation-Induced Steel Corrosion in Cementitious Mortars
title_sort hybrid gaussian process regression models for accurate prediction of carbonation induced steel corrosion in cementitious mortars
topic Gaussian Process Regression
corrosion prediction
carbonation
concrete durability
machine learning
kernel design
url https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/14/2464
work_keys_str_mv AT teerapunsaeheaw hybridgaussianprocessregressionmodelsforaccuratepredictionofcarbonationinducedsteelcorrosionincementitiousmortars