Econometric Modeling Combining MCMC Algorithm and Random Coefficient Quantile AR Model

The current econometric models have the disadvantages of low prediction accuracy and poor model fitting effect. To solve these problems, this study combines Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with random coefficient quantile auto-regression model, and optimizes the econometric model based on the fus...

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Main Author: Ting Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IEEE 2025-01-01
Series:IEEE Access
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Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10909092/
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author Ting Wang
author_facet Ting Wang
author_sort Ting Wang
collection DOAJ
description The current econometric models have the disadvantages of low prediction accuracy and poor model fitting effect. To solve these problems, this study combines Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with random coefficient quantile auto-regression model, and optimizes the econometric model based on the fusion algorithm. The results showed that compared with financial time series prediction algorithms, the fusion algorithm improved the prediction accuracy by 4.8% and the computation speed by 6.5 bps. The econometric model based on the fusion algorithm was compared with other models. The results showed that the optimized model improved the prediction accuracy by 10.7% compared to the AdaBoost econometric model. In summary, the fusion algorithm proposed in the study can improve the prediction efficiency of econometric models, accelerate the prediction process, optimize economic benefits, and reduce investment risks for enterprises and individuals.
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spelling doaj-art-b5cb0f34e29342e99f58eeb7994899142025-08-20T02:47:49ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362025-01-0113421294214210.1109/ACCESS.2025.354734810909092Econometric Modeling Combining MCMC Algorithm and Random Coefficient Quantile AR ModelTing Wang0https://orcid.org/0009-0004-4871-1909Department of Business Administration, Shandong Vocational College of Light Industry, Zibo, ChinaThe current econometric models have the disadvantages of low prediction accuracy and poor model fitting effect. To solve these problems, this study combines Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with random coefficient quantile auto-regression model, and optimizes the econometric model based on the fusion algorithm. The results showed that compared with financial time series prediction algorithms, the fusion algorithm improved the prediction accuracy by 4.8% and the computation speed by 6.5 bps. The econometric model based on the fusion algorithm was compared with other models. The results showed that the optimized model improved the prediction accuracy by 10.7% compared to the AdaBoost econometric model. In summary, the fusion algorithm proposed in the study can improve the prediction efficiency of econometric models, accelerate the prediction process, optimize economic benefits, and reduce investment risks for enterprises and individuals.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10909092/Econometric modelMarkov chain Monte Carlo algorithmrandom coefficient quantile auto-regressive modeleconomic efficiency
spellingShingle Ting Wang
Econometric Modeling Combining MCMC Algorithm and Random Coefficient Quantile AR Model
IEEE Access
Econometric model
Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm
random coefficient quantile auto-regressive model
economic efficiency
title Econometric Modeling Combining MCMC Algorithm and Random Coefficient Quantile AR Model
title_full Econometric Modeling Combining MCMC Algorithm and Random Coefficient Quantile AR Model
title_fullStr Econometric Modeling Combining MCMC Algorithm and Random Coefficient Quantile AR Model
title_full_unstemmed Econometric Modeling Combining MCMC Algorithm and Random Coefficient Quantile AR Model
title_short Econometric Modeling Combining MCMC Algorithm and Random Coefficient Quantile AR Model
title_sort econometric modeling combining mcmc algorithm and random coefficient quantile ar model
topic Econometric model
Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm
random coefficient quantile auto-regressive model
economic efficiency
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10909092/
work_keys_str_mv AT tingwang econometricmodelingcombiningmcmcalgorithmandrandomcoefficientquantilearmodel