Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world
Abstract Most countries have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C–2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures respond under net-zero CO2 remains uncertain. Using climate model simulations, we h...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
|
| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01165-y |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849237632451608576 |
|---|---|
| author | Yong-Han Lee Sang-Wook Yeh Guojian Wang Soon-Il An Hajoon Song Seok-Woo Son Young-Min Yang |
| author_facet | Yong-Han Lee Sang-Wook Yeh Guojian Wang Soon-Il An Hajoon Song Seok-Woo Son Young-Min Yang |
| author_sort | Yong-Han Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Most countries have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C–2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures respond under net-zero CO2 remains uncertain. Using climate model simulations, we have found that NH temperatures exhibit either early or delayed warming following the achievement of net-zero emissions. These divergent responses are driven by differences in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which begins to diverge ~50 years prior to net-zero. In cases of early warming, increased salinity in the subpolar Atlantic leads to earlier AMOC recovery. Conversely, delayed AMOC recovery postpones NH warming. These results highlight the critical role of pre-net-zero conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic in determining the divergent responses of NH warming after net-zero emissions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b5babb5043e14bf8aa9c1573ea18f1ba |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-b5babb5043e14bf8aa9c1573ea18f1ba2025-08-20T04:01:53ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-08-01811910.1038/s41612-025-01165-yEarly or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 worldYong-Han Lee0Sang-Wook Yeh1Guojian Wang2Soon-Il An3Hajoon Song4Seok-Woo Son5Young-Min Yang6Department of Marine Science and Convergent Technology, Hanyang UniversityDepartment of Marine Science and Convergent Technology, Hanyang UniversityCSIRO EnvironmentDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei UniversitySchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National UniversityDepartment of Environment & Energy/School of Civil, Environmental, Resources and Energy Engineering/Soil Environment Research Center, Jeonbuk National UniversityAbstract Most countries have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C–2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures respond under net-zero CO2 remains uncertain. Using climate model simulations, we have found that NH temperatures exhibit either early or delayed warming following the achievement of net-zero emissions. These divergent responses are driven by differences in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which begins to diverge ~50 years prior to net-zero. In cases of early warming, increased salinity in the subpolar Atlantic leads to earlier AMOC recovery. Conversely, delayed AMOC recovery postpones NH warming. These results highlight the critical role of pre-net-zero conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic in determining the divergent responses of NH warming after net-zero emissions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01165-y |
| spellingShingle | Yong-Han Lee Sang-Wook Yeh Guojian Wang Soon-Il An Hajoon Song Seok-Woo Son Young-Min Yang Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world |
| title_full | Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world |
| title_fullStr | Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world |
| title_full_unstemmed | Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world |
| title_short | Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world |
| title_sort | early or delayed northern hemisphere warming driven by the amoc in a net zero co2 world |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01165-y |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yonghanlee earlyordelayednorthernhemispherewarmingdrivenbytheamocinanetzeroco2world AT sangwookyeh earlyordelayednorthernhemispherewarmingdrivenbytheamocinanetzeroco2world AT guojianwang earlyordelayednorthernhemispherewarmingdrivenbytheamocinanetzeroco2world AT soonilan earlyordelayednorthernhemispherewarmingdrivenbytheamocinanetzeroco2world AT hajoonsong earlyordelayednorthernhemispherewarmingdrivenbytheamocinanetzeroco2world AT seokwooson earlyordelayednorthernhemispherewarmingdrivenbytheamocinanetzeroco2world AT youngminyang earlyordelayednorthernhemispherewarmingdrivenbytheamocinanetzeroco2world |