Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world
Abstract Most countries have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C–2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures respond under net-zero CO2 remains uncertain. Using climate model simulations, we h...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01165-y |
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| Summary: | Abstract Most countries have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C–2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures respond under net-zero CO2 remains uncertain. Using climate model simulations, we have found that NH temperatures exhibit either early or delayed warming following the achievement of net-zero emissions. These divergent responses are driven by differences in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which begins to diverge ~50 years prior to net-zero. In cases of early warming, increased salinity in the subpolar Atlantic leads to earlier AMOC recovery. Conversely, delayed AMOC recovery postpones NH warming. These results highlight the critical role of pre-net-zero conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic in determining the divergent responses of NH warming after net-zero emissions. |
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| ISSN: | 2397-3722 |