Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux
Abstract One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004431 |
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| author | Dan Li Ting Sun Jiachuan Yang Ning Zhang Pouya Vahmani Andrew Jones |
| author_facet | Dan Li Ting Sun Jiachuan Yang Ning Zhang Pouya Vahmani Andrew Jones |
| author_sort | Dan Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single‐layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof‐air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2‐m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2‐m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b5ac9c2db3524085ad24cfdaabf00548 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1942-2466 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-b5ac9c2db3524085ad24cfdaabf005482025-08-20T02:12:10ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662024-10-011610n/an/a10.1029/2024MS004431Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat FluxDan Li0Ting Sun1Jiachuan Yang2Ning Zhang3Pouya Vahmani4Andrew Jones5Department of Earth and Environment Boston University Boston MA USADepartment of Risk and Disaster Reduction University College London London UKDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing ChinaLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USALawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USAAbstract One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single‐layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof‐air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2‐m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2‐m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004431anthropogenic heat fluxurban climatesensitivitystructural uncertainty |
| spellingShingle | Dan Li Ting Sun Jiachuan Yang Ning Zhang Pouya Vahmani Andrew Jones Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems anthropogenic heat flux urban climate sensitivity structural uncertainty |
| title | Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux |
| title_full | Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux |
| title_fullStr | Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux |
| title_full_unstemmed | Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux |
| title_short | Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux |
| title_sort | structural uncertainty in the sensitivity of urban temperatures to anthropogenic heat flux |
| topic | anthropogenic heat flux urban climate sensitivity structural uncertainty |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004431 |
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