Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010–2019)
BackgroundWhile child morbidity in Kazakhstan is studied, existing research often prioritizes mortality or infectious diseases over non-communicable conditions. This study fills this gap by examining socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare factors linked to respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervo...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1615521/full |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850215459136208896 |
|---|---|
| author | Nurlan Smagulov Olzhas Zhamantayev Aidar Aitkulov Nurbek Yerdessov Karina Nukeshtayeva Zhanerke Bolatova Zhyldyz Kurzhunbaeva |
| author_facet | Nurlan Smagulov Olzhas Zhamantayev Aidar Aitkulov Nurbek Yerdessov Karina Nukeshtayeva Zhanerke Bolatova Zhyldyz Kurzhunbaeva |
| author_sort | Nurlan Smagulov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundWhile child morbidity in Kazakhstan is studied, existing research often prioritizes mortality or infectious diseases over non-communicable conditions. This study fills this gap by examining socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare factors linked to respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervous system disorders among children aged 0–14 years across Kazakhstan from 2010 to 2019 highlighting regional context.MethodsPanel data from 14 regions were analyzed using linear mixed models with autoregressive covariance to address regional and temporal heterogeneity. Log-transformed incidence rates of respiratory diseases (J00-J99), asthma (J45), and nervous system diseases (G00-G99) were modeled against predictors including GRP per capita, unemployment, population density, Gini coefficient, pediatrician density, and hospital resources. Other variables with variance inflation factors ≥5 were excluded to mitigate multicollinearity.ResultsRespiratory diseases showed the highest mean incidence (57,329.86 per 100,000), with significant regional variation. Aqtöbe, Atyrau, and South Kazakhstan had 12–25% lower incidence compared to Zhambyl (reference), while Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan had 35–61% higher rates. A 1% increase in population density correlated with a 1.05% decrease in respiratory disease incidence (p = 0.008), whereas unemployment was linked to a 0.41% rise (p = 0.029). Asthma incidence increased by 140% over the decade, with higher rates in regions with greater income inequality (0.26% increase per 1% rise in low-income households, p = 0.032). Nervous system disorders showed limited associations, with unemployment as the sole predictor (0.69% increase per 1% rise, p = 0.040). Temporal trends revealed declines in most diseases, but neoplasms, diabetes, and asthma increased significantly.ConclusionThe study addresses the lack of localized socioeconomic and healthcare analyses for respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervous system disorders among children, providing evidence for region-specific policy interventions. Respiratory diseases and asthma among Kazakhstani children 0–14 years had associations with the regional economic conditions, healthcare utilization, and inequality. Population density and income inequality were consistent predictors, while nervous system disorders showed fewer clear associations. Our findings show distinct regional patterns in pediatric morbidity, linking health outcomes to localized socioeconomic and healthcare conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b578e13855084304bef42a07e9fef573 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-b578e13855084304bef42a07e9fef5732025-08-20T02:08:36ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652025-06-011310.3389/fpubh.2025.16155211615521Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010–2019)Nurlan Smagulov0Olzhas Zhamantayev1Aidar Aitkulov2Nurbek Yerdessov3Karina Nukeshtayeva4Zhanerke Bolatova5Zhyldyz Kurzhunbaeva6Research Park of Biotechnology and Eco-Monitoring, Karaganda Buketov University, Karaganda, KazakhstanSchool of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda, KazakhstanFaculty of Biology and Geography, Karaganda Buketov University, Karaganda, KazakhstanSchool of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda, KazakhstanSchool of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda, KazakhstanSchool of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda, KazakhstanDepartment of Science and High Technology, University of Insubria, Varese, ItalyBackgroundWhile child morbidity in Kazakhstan is studied, existing research often prioritizes mortality or infectious diseases over non-communicable conditions. This study fills this gap by examining socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare factors linked to respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervous system disorders among children aged 0–14 years across Kazakhstan from 2010 to 2019 highlighting regional context.MethodsPanel data from 14 regions were analyzed using linear mixed models with autoregressive covariance to address regional and temporal heterogeneity. Log-transformed incidence rates of respiratory diseases (J00-J99), asthma (J45), and nervous system diseases (G00-G99) were modeled against predictors including GRP per capita, unemployment, population density, Gini coefficient, pediatrician density, and hospital resources. Other variables with variance inflation factors ≥5 were excluded to mitigate multicollinearity.ResultsRespiratory diseases showed the highest mean incidence (57,329.86 per 100,000), with significant regional variation. Aqtöbe, Atyrau, and South Kazakhstan had 12–25% lower incidence compared to Zhambyl (reference), while Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan had 35–61% higher rates. A 1% increase in population density correlated with a 1.05% decrease in respiratory disease incidence (p = 0.008), whereas unemployment was linked to a 0.41% rise (p = 0.029). Asthma incidence increased by 140% over the decade, with higher rates in regions with greater income inequality (0.26% increase per 1% rise in low-income households, p = 0.032). Nervous system disorders showed limited associations, with unemployment as the sole predictor (0.69% increase per 1% rise, p = 0.040). Temporal trends revealed declines in most diseases, but neoplasms, diabetes, and asthma increased significantly.ConclusionThe study addresses the lack of localized socioeconomic and healthcare analyses for respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervous system disorders among children, providing evidence for region-specific policy interventions. Respiratory diseases and asthma among Kazakhstani children 0–14 years had associations with the regional economic conditions, healthcare utilization, and inequality. Population density and income inequality were consistent predictors, while nervous system disorders showed fewer clear associations. Our findings show distinct regional patterns in pediatric morbidity, linking health outcomes to localized socioeconomic and healthcare conditions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1615521/fullpediatric morbidityKazakhstanrespiratory diseasesasthmanervous system disorderssocioeconomic determinants |
| spellingShingle | Nurlan Smagulov Olzhas Zhamantayev Aidar Aitkulov Nurbek Yerdessov Karina Nukeshtayeva Zhanerke Bolatova Zhyldyz Kurzhunbaeva Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010–2019) Frontiers in Public Health pediatric morbidity Kazakhstan respiratory diseases asthma nervous system disorders socioeconomic determinants |
| title | Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010–2019) |
| title_full | Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010–2019) |
| title_fullStr | Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010–2019) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010–2019) |
| title_short | Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010–2019) |
| title_sort | pre covid era pediatric disease incidence in kazakhstan regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups 2010 2019 |
| topic | pediatric morbidity Kazakhstan respiratory diseases asthma nervous system disorders socioeconomic determinants |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1615521/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nurlansmagulov precoviderapediatricdiseaseincidenceinkazakhstanregionalpaneldataanalysisofmultiplediseasegroups20102019 AT olzhaszhamantayev precoviderapediatricdiseaseincidenceinkazakhstanregionalpaneldataanalysisofmultiplediseasegroups20102019 AT aidaraitkulov precoviderapediatricdiseaseincidenceinkazakhstanregionalpaneldataanalysisofmultiplediseasegroups20102019 AT nurbekyerdessov precoviderapediatricdiseaseincidenceinkazakhstanregionalpaneldataanalysisofmultiplediseasegroups20102019 AT karinanukeshtayeva precoviderapediatricdiseaseincidenceinkazakhstanregionalpaneldataanalysisofmultiplediseasegroups20102019 AT zhanerkebolatova precoviderapediatricdiseaseincidenceinkazakhstanregionalpaneldataanalysisofmultiplediseasegroups20102019 AT zhyldyzkurzhunbaeva precoviderapediatricdiseaseincidenceinkazakhstanregionalpaneldataanalysisofmultiplediseasegroups20102019 |