Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate
The importance of land–atmosphere feedbacks on regional precipitation changes has been recently noted. However, how land–atmosphere feedbacks shape daily precipitation distributions, particularly the tails of precipitation distributions associated with extreme events, remains unclear on a regional s...
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Advances in Climate Change Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001187 |
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| author | Mei-Yu Chang Zhi-Yan Zuo Liang Qiao Kai-Wen Zhang Bo Liu |
| author_facet | Mei-Yu Chang Zhi-Yan Zuo Liang Qiao Kai-Wen Zhang Bo Liu |
| author_sort | Mei-Yu Chang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The importance of land–atmosphere feedbacks on regional precipitation changes has been recently noted. However, how land–atmosphere feedbacks shape daily precipitation distributions, particularly the tails of precipitation distributions associated with extreme events, remains unclear on a regional scale. Herein, using the latest land–atmosphere coupling experiments, this study reveals a consistent weakening effect of land–atmosphere feedbacks on the future increase in precipitation extremes over Australia, revealing the most pronounced reduction (56.8%) for the long-term (2080–2099) projection under the low emission (SSP1-2.6) scenario. This weakening effect holds true for shifts in the extreme tail of precipitation distribution, resulting in a reduced risk of precipitation extremes in a warming climate. Land‒atmosphere feedbacks offset 28%–60% of the occurrence risk for the 99th percentile of daily precipitation, with the largest reduction of 172% when precipitation exceeds the 99.7th percentile in the long-term projection under the high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. Considering less water replenishment, these feedbacks may reduce the risk of flooding but potentially expedite droughts, highlighting the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks in extreme event projection and regional climate adaptation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b4a4bde0cfa94ecaa3f6382c36855a2f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1674-9278 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-b4a4bde0cfa94ecaa3f6382c36855a2f2025-08-20T02:23:46ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Advances in Climate Change Research1674-92782024-10-0115585986810.1016/j.accre.2024.08.005Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climateMei-Yu Chang0Zhi-Yan Zuo1Liang Qiao2Kai-Wen Zhang3Bo Liu4Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere‒Ocean‒Ice System for Weather and Climate of Ministry of Education/Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean‒Land‒Atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, ChinaKey Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere‒Ocean‒Ice System for Weather and Climate of Ministry of Education/Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean‒Land‒Atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; Corresponding author. Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere‒Ocean‒Ice System for Weather and Climate of Ministry of Education/Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean‒Land‒Atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China.Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere‒Ocean‒Ice System for Weather and Climate of Ministry of Education/Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean‒Land‒Atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, ChinaKey Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere‒Ocean‒Ice System for Weather and Climate of Ministry of Education/Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean‒Land‒Atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaThe importance of land–atmosphere feedbacks on regional precipitation changes has been recently noted. However, how land–atmosphere feedbacks shape daily precipitation distributions, particularly the tails of precipitation distributions associated with extreme events, remains unclear on a regional scale. Herein, using the latest land–atmosphere coupling experiments, this study reveals a consistent weakening effect of land–atmosphere feedbacks on the future increase in precipitation extremes over Australia, revealing the most pronounced reduction (56.8%) for the long-term (2080–2099) projection under the low emission (SSP1-2.6) scenario. This weakening effect holds true for shifts in the extreme tail of precipitation distribution, resulting in a reduced risk of precipitation extremes in a warming climate. Land‒atmosphere feedbacks offset 28%–60% of the occurrence risk for the 99th percentile of daily precipitation, with the largest reduction of 172% when precipitation exceeds the 99.7th percentile in the long-term projection under the high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. Considering less water replenishment, these feedbacks may reduce the risk of flooding but potentially expedite droughts, highlighting the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks in extreme event projection and regional climate adaptation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001187Land–atmosphere feedbacksExtreme precipitationAustraliaPrecipitation distribution |
| spellingShingle | Mei-Yu Chang Zhi-Yan Zuo Liang Qiao Kai-Wen Zhang Bo Liu Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate Advances in Climate Change Research Land–atmosphere feedbacks Extreme precipitation Australia Precipitation distribution |
| title | Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate |
| title_full | Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate |
| title_fullStr | Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate |
| title_short | Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate |
| title_sort | land atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over australia in a warming climate |
| topic | Land–atmosphere feedbacks Extreme precipitation Australia Precipitation distribution |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001187 |
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