Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using PV Data and Sky Images in an Auto Cross Modal Correlation Attention Multimodal Framework

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for improving virtual power plant (VPP) efficiency and power system stability. However, short-term PV power forecasting remains highly challenging due to the significant impact of weather changes, especially the complexity of c...

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Main Authors: Chen Pan, Yuqiao Liu, Yeonjae Oh, Changgyoon Lim
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-12-01
Series:Energies
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/24/6378
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author Chen Pan
Yuqiao Liu
Yeonjae Oh
Changgyoon Lim
author_facet Chen Pan
Yuqiao Liu
Yeonjae Oh
Changgyoon Lim
author_sort Chen Pan
collection DOAJ
description The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for improving virtual power plant (VPP) efficiency and power system stability. However, short-term PV power forecasting remains highly challenging due to the significant impact of weather changes, especially the complexity of cloud motion. To this end, this paper proposes an end-to-end innovative deep learning framework for data fusion based on multimodal learning, which utilizes a new auto cross modal correlation attention (ACMCA) mechanism designed in this paper for feature extraction and fusion by combining historical PV power generation time-series data and sky image data, thereby enhancing the model’s prediction performance under complex weather conditions. In this paper, the effectiveness of the proposed model was verified through a large number of experiments, and the experimental results showed that the model’s forecast skill (FS) reached 24.2% under all weather conditions 15 min in advance, and 24.32% under cloudy conditions with the largest fluctuations. This paper also compared the model with a variety of existing unimodal and multimodal models, respectively. The experimental results showed that the model in this paper outperformed other benchmark methods in all indices under different weather conditions, demonstrating stronger adaptability and robustness.
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spelling doaj-art-b3de84444d88496fa55e422c1ee2d85a2025-08-20T02:00:45ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732024-12-011724637810.3390/en17246378Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using PV Data and Sky Images in an Auto Cross Modal Correlation Attention Multimodal FrameworkChen Pan0Yuqiao Liu1Yeonjae Oh2Changgyoon Lim3Department of Computer Engineering, Chonnam National University, Yeosu 59626, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Computer Engineering, Chonnam National University, Yeosu 59626, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Cultural Contents, Chonnam National University, Yeosu 59626, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Computer Engineering, Chonnam National University, Yeosu 59626, Republic of KoreaThe accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for improving virtual power plant (VPP) efficiency and power system stability. However, short-term PV power forecasting remains highly challenging due to the significant impact of weather changes, especially the complexity of cloud motion. To this end, this paper proposes an end-to-end innovative deep learning framework for data fusion based on multimodal learning, which utilizes a new auto cross modal correlation attention (ACMCA) mechanism designed in this paper for feature extraction and fusion by combining historical PV power generation time-series data and sky image data, thereby enhancing the model’s prediction performance under complex weather conditions. In this paper, the effectiveness of the proposed model was verified through a large number of experiments, and the experimental results showed that the model’s forecast skill (FS) reached 24.2% under all weather conditions 15 min in advance, and 24.32% under cloudy conditions with the largest fluctuations. This paper also compared the model with a variety of existing unimodal and multimodal models, respectively. The experimental results showed that the model in this paper outperformed other benchmark methods in all indices under different weather conditions, demonstrating stronger adaptability and robustness.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/24/6378short-term photovoltaic power forecastingmultimodal learningattention mechanismvirtual power plantsky image
spellingShingle Chen Pan
Yuqiao Liu
Yeonjae Oh
Changgyoon Lim
Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using PV Data and Sky Images in an Auto Cross Modal Correlation Attention Multimodal Framework
Energies
short-term photovoltaic power forecasting
multimodal learning
attention mechanism
virtual power plant
sky image
title Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using PV Data and Sky Images in an Auto Cross Modal Correlation Attention Multimodal Framework
title_full Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using PV Data and Sky Images in an Auto Cross Modal Correlation Attention Multimodal Framework
title_fullStr Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using PV Data and Sky Images in an Auto Cross Modal Correlation Attention Multimodal Framework
title_full_unstemmed Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using PV Data and Sky Images in an Auto Cross Modal Correlation Attention Multimodal Framework
title_short Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using PV Data and Sky Images in an Auto Cross Modal Correlation Attention Multimodal Framework
title_sort short term photovoltaic power forecasting using pv data and sky images in an auto cross modal correlation attention multimodal framework
topic short-term photovoltaic power forecasting
multimodal learning
attention mechanism
virtual power plant
sky image
url https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/24/6378
work_keys_str_mv AT chenpan shorttermphotovoltaicpowerforecastingusingpvdataandskyimagesinanautocrossmodalcorrelationattentionmultimodalframework
AT yuqiaoliu shorttermphotovoltaicpowerforecastingusingpvdataandskyimagesinanautocrossmodalcorrelationattentionmultimodalframework
AT yeonjaeoh shorttermphotovoltaicpowerforecastingusingpvdataandskyimagesinanautocrossmodalcorrelationattentionmultimodalframework
AT changgyoonlim shorttermphotovoltaicpowerforecastingusingpvdataandskyimagesinanautocrossmodalcorrelationattentionmultimodalframework