Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 SNP per genome per year
PurposeTuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern, necessitating effective measures to control the epidemic. Understanding the evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) through molecular clock analysis is crucial for tracing outbreaks, managing transmission, and ultimately i...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Microbiology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2025.1591792/full |
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| author | Jun-Li Wang Jun-Li Wang Jun-Li Wang Ya-Li Chen Cui-Ping Guan Kan Yu Kan Yu Kan Yu Mao-Shui Wang |
| author_facet | Jun-Li Wang Jun-Li Wang Jun-Li Wang Ya-Li Chen Cui-Ping Guan Kan Yu Kan Yu Kan Yu Mao-Shui Wang |
| author_sort | Jun-Li Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | PurposeTuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern, necessitating effective measures to control the epidemic. Understanding the evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) through molecular clock analysis is crucial for tracing outbreaks, managing transmission, and ultimately improving TB management in practice.ResultsA total of 27 studies were included for analysis. The pooled mutation rate was estimated at 0.63 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) per genome per year [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.51–0.75; 95% predictive interval (PI): 0.04–1.22], significant heterogeneity (I2 = 92.7%, p < 0.001) was observed. Clinical strains had a mutation rate of 0.55 SNPs per year (95% CI: 0.45–0.65; 95% PI: 0.12–0.98), while model strains showed a higher rate of 1.14 SNPs per year (95% CI: 0.68–1.60; 95% PI: −0.22-2.50; Meta-regression analysis, p = 0.006). Mutation rates did not significantly differ between transmission events and reactivation or single episodes (p = 0.497).ConclusionThe mutation rate of clinical M. tb strains is below 1 SNP per genome per year, indicating evolutionary stability in clinical settings. This finding is important for TB outbreak reconstructions and public health strategies. Future research should refine subgroup analyses based on infection characteristics for more precise molecular clock estimates.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO, identifier CRD42024595161. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b3cf3baa3e6c4de18b232db91e5c94a3 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1664-302X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Microbiology |
| spelling | doaj-art-b3cf3baa3e6c4de18b232db91e5c94a32025-08-20T02:23:51ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Microbiology1664-302X2025-06-011610.3389/fmicb.2025.15917921591792Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 SNP per genome per yearJun-Li Wang0Jun-Li Wang1Jun-Li Wang2Ya-Li Chen3Cui-Ping Guan4Kan Yu5Kan Yu6Kan Yu7Mao-Shui Wang8Department of Lab Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities, Baise, ChinaGuangxi Engineering Research Center for Precise Genetic Testing of Long-Dwelling Nationalities, Guangxi, ChinaEngineering Research Center of Guangxi Higher Education Institutions for Precise Genetic Testing of Long-Dwelling Nationalities, Guangxi, ChinaDepartment of Lab Medicine, Shandong Public Health Clinical Center, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Lab Medicine, Shandong Public Health Clinical Center, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaMarshall Centre, Division of Infection and Immunity, School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, AustraliaThe Marshall Centre for Infectious Diseases, Research and Training, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, AustraliaSchool of Biomedical Sciences, The University Western Australia, Perth, WA, AustraliaDepartment of Lab Medicine, Shandong Public Health Clinical Center, Shandong University, Jinan, ChinaPurposeTuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern, necessitating effective measures to control the epidemic. Understanding the evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) through molecular clock analysis is crucial for tracing outbreaks, managing transmission, and ultimately improving TB management in practice.ResultsA total of 27 studies were included for analysis. The pooled mutation rate was estimated at 0.63 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) per genome per year [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.51–0.75; 95% predictive interval (PI): 0.04–1.22], significant heterogeneity (I2 = 92.7%, p < 0.001) was observed. Clinical strains had a mutation rate of 0.55 SNPs per year (95% CI: 0.45–0.65; 95% PI: 0.12–0.98), while model strains showed a higher rate of 1.14 SNPs per year (95% CI: 0.68–1.60; 95% PI: −0.22-2.50; Meta-regression analysis, p = 0.006). Mutation rates did not significantly differ between transmission events and reactivation or single episodes (p = 0.497).ConclusionThe mutation rate of clinical M. tb strains is below 1 SNP per genome per year, indicating evolutionary stability in clinical settings. This finding is important for TB outbreak reconstructions and public health strategies. Future research should refine subgroup analyses based on infection characteristics for more precise molecular clock estimates.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO, identifier CRD42024595161.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2025.1591792/fullmolecular clockMycobacterium tuberculosissingle nucleotide polymorphismheterogeneitysystematic review |
| spellingShingle | Jun-Li Wang Jun-Li Wang Jun-Li Wang Ya-Li Chen Cui-Ping Guan Kan Yu Kan Yu Kan Yu Mao-Shui Wang Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 SNP per genome per year Frontiers in Microbiology molecular clock Mycobacterium tuberculosis single nucleotide polymorphism heterogeneity systematic review |
| title | Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 SNP per genome per year |
| title_full | Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 SNP per genome per year |
| title_fullStr | Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 SNP per genome per year |
| title_full_unstemmed | Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 SNP per genome per year |
| title_short | Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 SNP per genome per year |
| title_sort | clinical mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates exhibit a molecular clock rate below 1 snp per genome per year |
| topic | molecular clock Mycobacterium tuberculosis single nucleotide polymorphism heterogeneity systematic review |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2025.1591792/full |
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