Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally
Abstract Regions across the globe have experienced devastating fire years in the past decade with far-reaching impacts. Here, we examine the role of antecedent and concurrent climate variability in enabling extreme regional fire years across global forests. These extreme years commonly coincided wit...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61608-1 |
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| _version_ | 1849343087736782848 |
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| author | John T. Abatzoglou Crystal A. Kolden Alison C. Cullen Mojtaba Sadegh Emily L. Williams Marco Turco Matthew W. Jones |
| author_facet | John T. Abatzoglou Crystal A. Kolden Alison C. Cullen Mojtaba Sadegh Emily L. Williams Marco Turco Matthew W. Jones |
| author_sort | John T. Abatzoglou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Regions across the globe have experienced devastating fire years in the past decade with far-reaching impacts. Here, we examine the role of antecedent and concurrent climate variability in enabling extreme regional fire years across global forests. These extreme years commonly coincided with extreme (1-in-15-year) fire weather indices (FWI) and featured a four and five-fold increase in the number of large fires and fire carbon emissions, respectively, compared with non-extreme years. Years with such extreme FWI metrics are 88-152% more likely across global forested lands under a contemporary (2011–2040) climate compared to a quasi-preindustrial (1851–1900) climate, with the most pronounced increased risk in temperate and Amazonian forests. Our results show that human-caused climate change is raising the odds of extreme climate-driven fire years across forested regions of the globe, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate risks and adapt to extreme fire years. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b3bdaeb33c7a4fb29fbaea27b8bb83e5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-b3bdaeb33c7a4fb29fbaea27b8bb83e52025-08-20T03:43:10ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-07-0116111010.1038/s41467-025-61608-1Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globallyJohn T. Abatzoglou0Crystal A. Kolden1Alison C. Cullen2Mojtaba Sadegh3Emily L. Williams4Marco Turco5Matthew W. Jones6School of Engineering, University of CaliforniaSchool of Engineering, University of CaliforniaEvans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of WashingtonDepartment of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversitySierra Nevada Research Institute, University of CaliforniaDepartment of Physics, University of MurciaTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East AngliaAbstract Regions across the globe have experienced devastating fire years in the past decade with far-reaching impacts. Here, we examine the role of antecedent and concurrent climate variability in enabling extreme regional fire years across global forests. These extreme years commonly coincided with extreme (1-in-15-year) fire weather indices (FWI) and featured a four and five-fold increase in the number of large fires and fire carbon emissions, respectively, compared with non-extreme years. Years with such extreme FWI metrics are 88-152% more likely across global forested lands under a contemporary (2011–2040) climate compared to a quasi-preindustrial (1851–1900) climate, with the most pronounced increased risk in temperate and Amazonian forests. Our results show that human-caused climate change is raising the odds of extreme climate-driven fire years across forested regions of the globe, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate risks and adapt to extreme fire years.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61608-1 |
| spellingShingle | John T. Abatzoglou Crystal A. Kolden Alison C. Cullen Mojtaba Sadegh Emily L. Williams Marco Turco Matthew W. Jones Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally Nature Communications |
| title | Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally |
| title_full | Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally |
| title_fullStr | Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally |
| title_short | Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally |
| title_sort | climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61608-1 |
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