Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020
[Objectives] To reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation from 1981 to 2020 in the southern Gaoligong Mountain(S-GLG) and explore its relationship with strong ENSO events, this study analyses the trends of five extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and their responses to larg...
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Editorial Office of Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
2025-06-01
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| author | CHEN Wen-hua, ZHANG Ning, FENG Chun-hong, ZHAO Wei-hua, YANG Min |
| author_facet | CHEN Wen-hua, ZHANG Ning, FENG Chun-hong, ZHAO Wei-hua, YANG Min |
| author_sort | CHEN Wen-hua, ZHANG Ning, FENG Chun-hong, ZHAO Wei-hua, YANG Min |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | [Objectives] To reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation from 1981 to 2020 in the southern Gaoligong Mountain(S-GLG) and explore its relationship with strong ENSO events, this study analyses the trends of five extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and their responses to large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies, such as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), providing a scientific basis for regional drought risk assessment and water resource management. [Methods] Using daily precipitation data from 8 meteorological stations, this study selected five EPIs: total wet-day precipitation (PTOT), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), and extreme precipitation intensity (SDII). Innovative trend analysis (ITA) and linear regression (LR) were used to analyze long-term trends, and composite analysis was employed to examine the impact of ENSO events (represented by ONI and DMI) on extreme precipitation. Seasonal-scale correlation analysis was conducted to distinguish the response differences between the western and eastern slopes. [Results] The results showed that except for a significant increase in CDD (3.9 d/(10 a) on the western slope and 0.7 d/(10 a) on the eastern slope), other EPIs exhibited decreasing trends, with PTOT decreasing most significantly (39.9 mm/(10 a) on the western slope and 46.1 mm/(10 a) on the eastern slope), indicating an intensifying drought risk in the region. ENSO correlations revealed weak to moderate negative relationships between extreme precipitation and ONI (p<0.1). During positive ONI phases (El Niño-like conditions), there was a higher probability of reduced precipitation during the rainy season. Additionally, the influence of DMI showed phase-dependent negative correlations, but with lower statistical significance. Regional seasonal differences were evident. The western slope showed a stronger negative correlation between rainy-season PTOT and CWD and simultaneous ONI during summer and autumn (r=-0.46 to -0.52), while the eastern slope exhibited a more pronounced lagged response of corresponding indices to ONI in the previous autumn and winter (r=-0.33 to -0.38), potentially indicating that topography may modulate the transmission of ENSO signals across the region. [Conclusions] The southern Gaoligong Mountain is experiencing a “drying” trend in extreme precipitation, with ENSO events (especially ONI) serving as key driving factors. Innovative findings include: (1) the first quantitative demonstration of seasonal response differences to ENSO between the western and eastern slopes, providing key parameters for improving local climate models; and (2) the proposal that early-stage ONI tracking may serve as a potential indicator for regional extreme precipitation prediction. These research findings provide important guidance for developing climate adaptation strategies in the region of Hengduan Mountains. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b384322209434661801233c8b1dd8a6c |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1001-5485 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute |
| record_format | Article |
| series | 长江科学院院报 |
| spelling | doaj-art-b384322209434661801233c8b1dd8a6c2025-08-20T02:39:28ZzhoEditorial Office of Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute长江科学院院报1001-54852025-06-01426445010.11988/ckyyb.20240374Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020CHEN Wen-hua, ZHANG Ning, FENG Chun-hong, ZHAO Wei-hua, YANG Min01 School of Resources and Environmental Science,Baoshan University,Baoshan 678000,China;2 BaoshanBranch,Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Baoshan 678000,China;3 Basin Water EnvironmentalResearch Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China[Objectives] To reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation from 1981 to 2020 in the southern Gaoligong Mountain(S-GLG) and explore its relationship with strong ENSO events, this study analyses the trends of five extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and their responses to large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies, such as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), providing a scientific basis for regional drought risk assessment and water resource management. [Methods] Using daily precipitation data from 8 meteorological stations, this study selected five EPIs: total wet-day precipitation (PTOT), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), and extreme precipitation intensity (SDII). Innovative trend analysis (ITA) and linear regression (LR) were used to analyze long-term trends, and composite analysis was employed to examine the impact of ENSO events (represented by ONI and DMI) on extreme precipitation. Seasonal-scale correlation analysis was conducted to distinguish the response differences between the western and eastern slopes. [Results] The results showed that except for a significant increase in CDD (3.9 d/(10 a) on the western slope and 0.7 d/(10 a) on the eastern slope), other EPIs exhibited decreasing trends, with PTOT decreasing most significantly (39.9 mm/(10 a) on the western slope and 46.1 mm/(10 a) on the eastern slope), indicating an intensifying drought risk in the region. ENSO correlations revealed weak to moderate negative relationships between extreme precipitation and ONI (p<0.1). During positive ONI phases (El Niño-like conditions), there was a higher probability of reduced precipitation during the rainy season. Additionally, the influence of DMI showed phase-dependent negative correlations, but with lower statistical significance. Regional seasonal differences were evident. The western slope showed a stronger negative correlation between rainy-season PTOT and CWD and simultaneous ONI during summer and autumn (r=-0.46 to -0.52), while the eastern slope exhibited a more pronounced lagged response of corresponding indices to ONI in the previous autumn and winter (r=-0.33 to -0.38), potentially indicating that topography may modulate the transmission of ENSO signals across the region. [Conclusions] The southern Gaoligong Mountain is experiencing a “drying” trend in extreme precipitation, with ENSO events (especially ONI) serving as key driving factors. Innovative findings include: (1) the first quantitative demonstration of seasonal response differences to ENSO between the western and eastern slopes, providing key parameters for improving local climate models; and (2) the proposal that early-stage ONI tracking may serve as a potential indicator for regional extreme precipitation prediction. These research findings provide important guidance for developing climate adaptation strategies in the region of Hengduan Mountains.http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/fileup/1001-5485/PDF/1735279980707-499572950.pdfextreme precipitation|evolution trends|innovative trend analysis|linear regression analysis|composite analysis|oni|correlation|gaoligong mountain |
| spellingShingle | CHEN Wen-hua, ZHANG Ning, FENG Chun-hong, ZHAO Wei-hua, YANG Min Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020 长江科学院院报 extreme precipitation|evolution trends|innovative trend analysis|linear regression analysis|composite analysis|oni|correlation|gaoligong mountain |
| title | Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020 |
| title_full | Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020 |
| title_fullStr | Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020 |
| title_short | Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020 |
| title_sort | characteristics and evolution trends of extreme precipitation in southern gaoligong mountain from 1981 to 2020 |
| topic | extreme precipitation|evolution trends|innovative trend analysis|linear regression analysis|composite analysis|oni|correlation|gaoligong mountain |
| url | http://ckyyb.crsri.cn/fileup/1001-5485/PDF/1735279980707-499572950.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chenwenhuazhangningfengchunhongzhaoweihuayangmin characteristicsandevolutiontrendsofextremeprecipitationinsoutherngaoligongmountainfrom1981to2020 |