Analyse et interprétation climatologique de l'évolution des températures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880
The way in which the global average temperature evolves over time has multiple and crucial repercussions on the biophysical environment, whether this environment is plant, animal or human. It therefore seemed interesting to us to contribute to the study of this evolution and to try to identify the u...
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Physio-Géo
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Physio-Géo |
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| Online Access: | https://journals.openedition.org/physio-geo/12176 |
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| author | Éric Zeltz |
| author_facet | Éric Zeltz |
| author_sort | Éric Zeltz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The way in which the global average temperature evolves over time has multiple and crucial repercussions on the biophysical environment, whether this environment is plant, animal or human. It therefore seemed interesting to us to contribute to the study of this evolution and to try to identify the underlying climatologic phenomena.To do this, our article begins by studying, on a statistic-probabilistic level, the monthly data of the global average temperature delivered from 1880 to 2015 by the American agency NOAA. In particular, we highlight an acceleration of the alternation of temperature increases, whether the studied series is placed in a period of warming or not: monthly temperature changes, whether positive or negative, have a certain tendency to reverse the following month. We also observe that this reversal trend is considerably accentuated during the last period of the study, that of the 1971-2015 warming period.We propose an explanation for the general phenomenon of alternation by a "prey-predator" type mechanism between these temperatures and low cloudiness.And to explain accentuation of this phenomenon during the last period, we indicate several possible avenues, most of them based on an increase in the emissions of condensation nuclei during this period, a phenomenon leading to development of low cloudiness. The hypothesis of changes in atmospheric circulation caused by climate change and interfering with this low cloudiness is also suggested as a possible additional explanation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b332d759957740bbba40650b75928d05 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1958-573X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Physio-Géo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Physio-Géo |
| spelling | doaj-art-b332d759957740bbba40650b75928d052025-08-20T02:21:18ZengPhysio-GéoPhysio-Géo1958-573X2021-03-0116497010.4000/physio-geo.12176Analyse et interprétation climatologique de l'évolution des températures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880Éric ZeltzThe way in which the global average temperature evolves over time has multiple and crucial repercussions on the biophysical environment, whether this environment is plant, animal or human. It therefore seemed interesting to us to contribute to the study of this evolution and to try to identify the underlying climatologic phenomena.To do this, our article begins by studying, on a statistic-probabilistic level, the monthly data of the global average temperature delivered from 1880 to 2015 by the American agency NOAA. In particular, we highlight an acceleration of the alternation of temperature increases, whether the studied series is placed in a period of warming or not: monthly temperature changes, whether positive or negative, have a certain tendency to reverse the following month. We also observe that this reversal trend is considerably accentuated during the last period of the study, that of the 1971-2015 warming period.We propose an explanation for the general phenomenon of alternation by a "prey-predator" type mechanism between these temperatures and low cloudiness.And to explain accentuation of this phenomenon during the last period, we indicate several possible avenues, most of them based on an increase in the emissions of condensation nuclei during this period, a phenomenon leading to development of low cloudiness. The hypothesis of changes in atmospheric circulation caused by climate change and interfering with this low cloudiness is also suggested as a possible additional explanation.https://journals.openedition.org/physio-geo/12176climate changetime seriestemperature variabilitycloudinessprey-predator model |
| spellingShingle | Éric Zeltz Analyse et interprétation climatologique de l'évolution des températures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880 Physio-Géo climate change time series temperature variability cloudiness prey-predator model |
| title | Analyse et interprétation climatologique de l'évolution des températures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880 |
| title_full | Analyse et interprétation climatologique de l'évolution des températures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880 |
| title_fullStr | Analyse et interprétation climatologique de l'évolution des températures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyse et interprétation climatologique de l'évolution des températures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880 |
| title_short | Analyse et interprétation climatologique de l'évolution des températures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880 |
| title_sort | analyse et interpretation climatologique de l evolution des temperatures moyennes mondiales depuis 1880 |
| topic | climate change time series temperature variability cloudiness prey-predator model |
| url | https://journals.openedition.org/physio-geo/12176 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ericzeltz analyseetinterpretationclimatologiquedelevolutiondestemperaturesmoyennesmondialesdepuis1880 |