Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024
Abstract In March 2024, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (ASPV) collapsed dramatically. The following April, extreme precipitation in South China (SCP) caused severe floods and economic damage. Whether and how they are connected is crucial yet unclear. Through observations and model simulations...
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| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01107-8 |
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| author | Qilu Wang Anmin Duan Aiguo Dai Shutao Cao Aoqi Zhou Yuan Gao Chunyan Xiao Bingxian Liu |
| author_facet | Qilu Wang Anmin Duan Aiguo Dai Shutao Cao Aoqi Zhou Yuan Gao Chunyan Xiao Bingxian Liu |
| author_sort | Qilu Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In March 2024, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (ASPV) collapsed dramatically. The following April, extreme precipitation in South China (SCP) caused severe floods and economic damage. Whether and how they are connected is crucial yet unclear. Through observations and model simulations, we demonstrate that the ASPV collapse in March amplified extreme SCP in April 2024. As stratospheric anomalies persistently propagated downward, March ASPV had a pronounced impact on the North Atlantic tropospheric circulation in April, exciting eastward-propagating Rossby waves. The resulting lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over South China enhanced vertical motion and moisture transport, with vertical ascent dominating the extreme precipitation. The ASPV’s influence on SCP ranked just behind that of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and together they improved SCP predictability to 52%. A weakened March ASPV increased extreme April SCP occurrence by 45%. This finding reveals a robust polar−low-latitude teleconnection, highlighting the Arctic stratospheric signal as a crucial predictor in SCP and even low-latitude climate, further aiding in impact mitigation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b3286801566c4d4e9fb9fc349cab4fcd |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-b3286801566c4d4e9fb9fc349cab4fcd2025-08-20T02:06:21ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-06-018111110.1038/s41612-025-01107-8Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024Qilu Wang0Anmin Duan1Aiguo Dai2Shutao Cao3Aoqi Zhou4Yuan Gao5Chunyan Xiao6Bingxian Liu7State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesCenter for Marine Meteorology and Climate Change, State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New YorkCenter for Marine Meteorology and Climate Change, State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen UniversityKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyCenter for Marine Meteorology and Climate Change, State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen UniversityState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesCenter for Marine Meteorology and Climate Change, State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen UniversityAbstract In March 2024, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (ASPV) collapsed dramatically. The following April, extreme precipitation in South China (SCP) caused severe floods and economic damage. Whether and how they are connected is crucial yet unclear. Through observations and model simulations, we demonstrate that the ASPV collapse in March amplified extreme SCP in April 2024. As stratospheric anomalies persistently propagated downward, March ASPV had a pronounced impact on the North Atlantic tropospheric circulation in April, exciting eastward-propagating Rossby waves. The resulting lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over South China enhanced vertical motion and moisture transport, with vertical ascent dominating the extreme precipitation. The ASPV’s influence on SCP ranked just behind that of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and together they improved SCP predictability to 52%. A weakened March ASPV increased extreme April SCP occurrence by 45%. This finding reveals a robust polar−low-latitude teleconnection, highlighting the Arctic stratospheric signal as a crucial predictor in SCP and even low-latitude climate, further aiding in impact mitigation.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01107-8 |
| spellingShingle | Qilu Wang Anmin Duan Aiguo Dai Shutao Cao Aoqi Zhou Yuan Gao Chunyan Xiao Bingxian Liu Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024 |
| title_full | Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024 |
| title_fullStr | Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024 |
| title_short | Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024 |
| title_sort | arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified south china extreme rainfall in april 2024 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01107-8 |
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